Contenders for Yeltsin's crown gather in shadows

WITHIN the past week, the body of an elderly woman, Mrs Anna Ichko, was found in an apartment on Moscow's Rublyovskoye Chausee…

WITHIN the past week, the body of an elderly woman, Mrs Anna Ichko, was found in an apartment on Moscow's Rublyovskoye Chausee. She had been stabbed to death. On the following day the body of her husband, Mr Alexander Ichko, was found in the same place. He had been bludgeoned.

Mr and Mrs Ichko's only claim to notoriety was that they were the parents in law of Dr Vladlen Vtorushin, one of the doctors currently treating President Boris Yeltsin as he prepares for his heart operation. The operation, if it takes place, is due in two months and the Russian press has speculated that some elements have been trying to frighten those responsible for getting Mr Yeltsin back into shape.

That task may not be an easy one. Medical sources have been quoted as saying that a by pass would be not only dangerous, but ineffective as Mr Yeltsin's left ventricle has been so severely damaged by previous heart attacks that it is pumping blood at only 23 per cent of the normal rate. There have even been cautious references to the possibility of a heart transplant.

While the presidential press service has vigorously denied most reports about Mr Yeltsin's health, it has been strangely silent about the report by Mr Sergei Parkhomenko of Itogi magazine on the severe damage to Mr Yeltsin's ventricle. In the meantime, a massive campaign to discredit security chief Gen Alexander Lebed has got under way.

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Mr Boris Fyodorov has been much luckier than the late Mr and Mrs Ichko. Earlier this year he was shot in a Moscow street. The assassin's gun jammed and he was then stabbed. But Mr Fyodorov, head of the Russian Sports Foundation, survived. Last week, he appeared on TV claiming that a former Yeltsin confidant, Gen Alexander Korzhakov, attempted to extort $40 million from him. He quoted Gen Korzhakoy deputy, Col Streletsky, as saying. This is a state racket. You must understand that the steamroller has started to move."

SHORTLY afterwards a presidential decree sacking the sports minister, Mr Shamil Tarpishchev, made headlines in Moscow. Mr Tarpishchev, who is also Mr Yeltsin's tennis coach, showed up for work and is still in his office. "The decree gave me strange feeling," he said, "the President's signature was not on it."

The main problems confronting Gen Korzhakov and Mr Tarpishchev appear to stem from the fact that they have moved into the Lebed camp during the power struggle created by the uncertainty over Mr Yeltsin's health. Gen Lebed, if he is to become president, will need money. Gen Korzhakov and Mr Tarpishchev have the cash.

The Sports Foundation, under Mr Tarpishchev's control, has had the bizarre concession to collect the revenue from all imported alcohol and tobacco. In the past it has gathered $400 million a month. Gen Korzhakov has influence in another wealthy organisation called Rosvooruzheni ye, the state arms monopoly.

State controlled television has made a much greater play of Gen Lebed's new association with the shadowy Gen Korzhakov and Mr Tarpishchev than it did when the two men were closely allied to Mr Yeltsin, and in political matters the two state controlled channels and the commercial NTV station usually act on orders from above.

Gen Lebed's reputation as the "Mr Clean" of Russian politics is undoubtedly being tarnished by his voluntary association with Gen Korzhakov, who is seen by most people as a shady character but has been described by Lebed as a "true patriot".

In recent days another figure, Mr Sergei Drobysh, has arrived on the scene.

The Interior Minister, Gen Anatoly Kulikov, who is perhaps Gen Lebed's most bitter enemy, has announced that Mr Drobysh, who was implicated in a major embezzlement scandal in 1992, had been instrumental in securing the Chechnya peace agreement for Gen Lebed.

IN the background there are three further contenders for the presidency should Mr Yeltsin be forced to relinquish his post.

The Prime Minister, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, has strong links with Gazprom, the former state gas monopoly, which is now the country's most successful and wealthiest company.

He has an extremely uncharismatic personality and would have trouble being elected despite his access to vast sums of money. Only if the Russian electorate opted en masse for stable but colourless leadership would he stand a chance.

The mayor of Moscow, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, has plenty of charisma and significantly has begun to make his presence felt outside the capital through statements on national and international policy, visits to the provinces and close connections with other local leaders. He is against the peace agreement in Chechnya, has spoken in support of the despotic president of Belarus, Mr Alexander Lukashenko, and is responsible for a crackdown on crime in Moscow, which has degenerated into the harassment of ethnic minorities. But he has built a massive cathedral, cleaned up Moscow's architecture and knows how to gather the votes.

Finally there is Mr Yeltsin's chief of staff, Mr Anatoly Chubais, who has denied that he and Mr Yeltsin's daughter, Mrs Tatyana Dyachenko, are running the Kremlin with copies of Mr Yeltsin's signature. Mr Chubais is highly unpopular on the ground and would stand no chance in an election. Whatever hold he has on power depends on Mr Yeltsin's survival.

The latest poll on how strongly the Russian people trust their leaders shows Gen Lebed far ahead of all his rivals with 40 per cent support among those polled. The Communist leader, Mr Gennady Zyuganov, is on 16 per cent, Mr Chernomyrdin on 14, Mr Yeltsin on 11, Mr Luzhkov 7 and Mr Chubais nowhere.

Clearly Gen Lebed is seen as a threat to his colleagues in power and work has started on reducing his popularity.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times