THE US undoubtedly has the most important say on whether the President,

Robinson, could become the next Secretary General of the UN.

Her visit here next week will bring her face to face with the people whom she would have to convince she is right for the job President Clinton and his ambassador to the UN, Madeleine Albright. That is assuming Mrs Robinson really wants the job, and that there is a vacancy.

As of now Dr Boutros Boutros Ghali, a former Egyptian deputy prime minister, has not declared his intentions about seeking a second term next January or standing down. He had said he would not seek a second term, but that was 18 months ago. This makes it very difficult for any candidate to campaign openly or for any government to lobby.

The feeling in the UN this week, as President Robinson's chances were widely touted in the British press, was that this is "mainly a media driven campaign" and does not accurately reflect the mood in the corridors of the headquarters of the world body on New York's East River.

As one diplomat put it "The game lies in the hands of the Americans. Everybody knows that Boutros wants the job, and the only people with the clout to stop him are the Americans".

The official American position is that "the government has not endorsed anybody because the Secretary General has not officially said whether he plans to run again". But the Americans are under no illusions that he wants a second term.

Virtually every secretary general has been given a second term, so it will not be easy for the US to force Boutros to go, even though he is not exactly popular.

The decision lies essentially in the hands of the "Big Five" countries on the Security Council, which under the Charter must recommend a name broadly acceptable to the General Assembly. There is a strong lobby for Mrs Robinson in the US.

The influential Wall Street Journal and US News and World Report have carried articles describing her suitability for the post. She is, however, just one of four well known women who are being currently mentioned, including the Norwegian Prime Minister, Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland Ms Sadako Ogata, of Japan, who is UN High Commissioner for Refugees and Ms Elisabeth Rehn, of Finland.

Senator Ted Kennedy is also visible in his support. Mrs Robinson has, however, written to Kennedy to say she is not a candidate.

Observers point out that it would be fatal for any candidate's chances to throw a hat in the ring at this stage while the incumbent has not declared his intentions. This creates obvious difficulties for the Irish Government, trying to decide if Mrs Robinson has a genuine chance to succeed Boutros and how to go about promoting a President in office. Would this even be constitutional?

The Government would have been embarrassed at the recent article in the American left wing magazine, The Nation, written by an admirer of Mrs Robinson and entitled "Should This Woman Run the World?" A proposal by the National Press Club to distribute the article at her press conference there next Friday during her visit to Washington had to be gently discouraged.

She also has strong allies inside the influential Ford Foundation, such as Sir Brian Urquhart, its UN affairs adviser and former under secretary. The foundations selected her to head a prestigious on the future of the UN, but the Fianna Fail Labour government vetoed her on dubious constitutional grounds.

VETOES would also come into play when the future of Boutros comes more us next October.

Any of the five permanent members of the Security Council could veto his reappointment, but the only country considered likely to bake such a drastic step is the US.

In an election year, it could be seen as a popular move for President Clinton to prove that he is not being pushed around by the UN, which has a poor image in Congress and with many Americans, although they do not want it to disappear.

But if the US vetoes the first African secretary general (Dr Ghali is Egyptian), this would arouse anger in many Third World countries and probably be "the kiss of death" for any American backed candidate, one UN observer commented.

Of the five power brokers, the British believe that Boutros will survive, although they would probably not oppose President Robinson if a vacancy occurs. And France finds Boutros fine according to a French diplomat.

The Chinese and Russian intentions are harder to ascertain, but they do not appear to have any serious objections to Boutros continuing in office.

So the US could find itself isolated and in an embarrassing row at the UN if it moves to dismiss Boutros. Observers believe that the administration has not really focused yet on the issue as it plunges into the twists and turns of the election campaign.

Being well disposed towards a popular Irish candidate is one thing stirring up unnecessary hostility at the UN is another.

Influential Irish Americans are also rooting for President Robinson to head the UN. What could be a greater honour for the country?

A bonus for this lobby, which greatly admires the former Taoiseach, Albert Reynolds, for his work in the peace process, would be that a vacancy would open up at Aras an Uachtarain.

Mr Reynolds could then get a well deserved reward from the Irish people for his peace efforts, while an Irish woman could strive to bring peace to a wider world.