Like the defenders of the Alamo, the Drumcree Orange parade supporters keep getting fewer in number. There were about 1,500 men in sashes at the church yesterday but it was not the great mustering of support and marshalling of forces that it used to be.

As I surveyed the scene with a colleague, we mused about the days when the field outside the church would be black with parked cars, not to mention tents, whole families having picnics and shady-looking men in the background with tight haircuts and flamboyant tattoos. "It's like yesterday's flat champagne," my colleague observed. The rain didn't help: even the Higher Power in control of such matters was no longer on the Orangemen's side, it seemed.

There have been man-made reasons for the modest turnout as well. The protest has now become so heavily tainted by the accompanying violence that even Archbishop Eames, not known for hastiness of word or deed, says it has now lost all integrity. Even yesterday there was an ugly and disturbing scene where two visiting photographers were severely jostled and harassed after the speeches.

The Portadown district master, Harold Gracey, attracted bad publicity during the week when he refused to condemn the violence of loyalists, since Gerry Adams did not condemn the violence of republicans. He was unapologetic in his speech yesterday and called for the protests to continue, pointing out that John Hume had also been involved in protests 30 years ago and ended up with the Nobel Peace Prize.

Four years ago, the Orangemen brought Northern Ireland to a standstill and forced the security and political authorities into a humiliating retreat which demeaned democracy, undermined the rule of law and aroused intense and widespread anger among the nationalist population. The protesters seem to be still hankering after that kind of near-uprising, which brought the RUC and the British government to their knees.

There is nothing like the same level of mass support this time, however. The call for protests by Orangemen all over the North this afternoon between 4 and 8 p.m. will no doubt be heeded by the diehards and could well have a significant short-term impact, but a re-run of 1996 seems unlikely.

It is not easy to make a revolution with a populace that is essentially conservative and law-abiding. If alleged loyalist threats to "kill a Catholic every day" are implemented, it will have the same effect as the killings of the young Quinn boys in 1998.

In 1996 also, we had the sinister and menacing figure of Billy Wright stalking the scene, always looking as if he were plotting some stark and terrible deed which would unnerve the authorities and strike fear and terror into the hearts of nationalists. Happily, in 1997, Wright was in jail, although he still exerted influence, and it was the fear of sectarian assassinations which forced a decision to push the march through that year.

Wright is no longer with us, having been murdered under strange circumstances by the INLA in December 1997. In his place there is Johnny "Mad Dog" Adair, who may inspire fear among nationalists but has not displayed Wright's political sophistication and organisational skills. Nevertheless, his frequent visits to Drumcree with his entourage and dog, Rebel, have put off the more moderate elements in the Protestant community.

Virtually every night and regular as Coronation Street, Mr Adair has been interviewed on the local TV news, muscles rippling and voice throbbing as he protests his innocence. One suspects that his cameo performances win little support in middle-class north Down.

Had the IRA known that by calling a ceasefire and making a settlement with its opponents it would create a situation where the Orange Order was destroying itself in full public view, the Provisional army council would probably have moved a lot earlier than 1994.

The demise of the Drumcree protest - because there can be little life left in it at this stage - constitutes a victory for the peace process. Republicans are in government, for the second time running, with the Ulster Unionist Party and even, at arm's length, the DUP, and the sky has not fallen.

Virtually the whole of nationalism and a significant section of the unionist community have embarked on a joint political venture, an exercise in co-operation and tolerance which might have had some rocky moments but has not led to people being murdered in their beds.

Despite the fact that "Real IRA" members were meant to be on ceasefire, the explosion at Stewarts town was widely believed to be their handiwork. While observers felt the dissidents would be pleased with their action, which showed that they were still in operation despite the efforts of the security forces and the threats of their erstwhile comrades in the Provisionals, the political effect of the bomb was being generally seen as negative even from a republican viewpoint.

The Orange Order and right-wing unionism is seriously isolated politically and only a republican outrage could take it off the hook.

While it still generates fear and foreboding, the Drumcree protest has been declining in impact year after year. The most sensible thing for the Orangemen to do would be to cut their losses and take advantage of the opportunity presented in the latest conciliation initiatives. This time next year, how much bargaining power will they have left?

The overall picture in the North is more heartening than it has been for some time, although there is the ever-present fear of unexpected catastrophe, whether from the republican side in the form of another Omagh or from the loyalists in terms of an atrocity so severe that it forces the IRA back to war.

The confidence-building measure of allowing the inspection of IRA arms dumps has been surprisingly well-received even in quarters which have been traditionally suspicious of republican motives and actions. Whereas Mr Ahern seemed to suggest that this was the end of the decommissioning issue, Mr Blair continued to pump air into it: this was the beginning, not the end.

For the moment, though, there seems to be general satisfaction that although the IRA will not hand over or destroy its arms, at least it will allow trusted intermediaries to look at some of them and ascertain that they are not being used. Decommissioning it is not, but it does raise hopes that, if political progress continues, the weapons will cease to be a factor in the equation.

While Drumcree will, in time, either evaporate or be resolved, the sectarian tensions which underlie the issue are alive and well and are likely to have a shelf-life of many decades yet. So far, the new Executive at Stormont has not been hamstrung or divided along sectarian lines, but careful handling of the issues and extraordinary sensitivity on all sides will be required to ensure that this continues.

The greatest challenge for the parties and governments is to ensure that a settlement conceived and executed in secret can secure not just public support, but a sense of ownership and participation among the population at large.

The next phase in North-related political developments will involve the Republic in a very intimate way with the mounting of a serious political challenge by Sinn Fein in the next general election.

Already there are indications from some quarters south of the Border that the peace process was all very well as long as it remained the other side of Dundalk, but we don't really want those ghettodwellers in government down here.

It's an issue which has the potential to cause bitter division in the Republic, with consequent effects on political stability in Northern Ireland. During the Troubles, the North was kept behind a cordon sanitaire, but the peace process has broken down this as well as other barriers. What will happen when Dublin South privilege is at last confronted with West Belfast hunger? The debate is only beginning.