We are in danger of getting a bit blase about the Oscars. Last year, Irish films and talent clocked up 14 nominations. The performance of An Cailín Ciúin in best international film was particularly notable. The year before, with Jessie Buckley and the Belfast folk winning a ticket to watch (as it transpired) Will Smith walloping Chris Rock, was almost as impressive.

We can expect strong numbers again this year. With Element Pictures’ Poor Things counting as an Irish co-production, the nation has a good chance of making it into double figures. Yorgos Lanthimos’s feminist fantasia received 11 Bafta nods this week. That does include best British film, which obviously has no corresponding Oscar, but the picture failed to score a best director nomination or – for either Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo – a best supporting actor mention. We don’t see that happening with the American academy. So 11 sounds possible. Robbie Ryan, one of Ireland’s greatest cinematographers, seems certain to be among their number.

It is, however, the actors who will attract most headlines. Barring a meteorite hitting Hollywood Blvd, Cillian Murphy will receive a best actor nomination for Oppenheimer. Having won the Golden Globe a few weeks back, he is favourite to win – thus becoming the first person born in Ireland to claim best actor – but Paul Giamatti, hot on the heels of a charming win at the People Choice Awards, is catching up fast. That should be a race worth following.

As for the rest of the gang. Results at Bafta have raised the possibility of Barry Keoghan, serpentine in Saltburn, and Paul Mescal, damaged in All of Us Strangers, both repeating on the nominations they scored last year. Without getting too (as the Americans say) inside baseball about it, we should note that the current Bafta nomination system, which has a committee select half the finalists, has rendered connections between the US and British academies – despite large shared membership – less robust than was traditionally the case. Those two actors feel like outside bets. Despite being snubbed at Bafta, Andrew Scott, nominated at the Globes, the Gotham Awards and the Independent Spirits, for All of Us Strangers, still feels a little more likely to land a nomination. But we’re not predicting him. Murphy could well be the only Irish acting nominee. (Cheer up. A few years ago you’d have happily taken that.)

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For reasons listed above, we also pay little attention to Lily Gladstone’s snub at Bafta. The Native American actor, up for her tragic turn in Killers of the Flower Moon, has, with Leonardo DiCaprio at her side, been playing a strong game throughout awards season. She gives great speeches. She will get in. Only Emma Stone, electric in Poor Things, can beat her to the statuette.

The long awards season, attended by endless commentary (such as the article you are currently reading), has taken some of the tension out of nomination morning. Most pundits, noting guilds and awards bodies, have nine of the 10 best picture places already nailed down. Could The Color Purple knock out our tenth selection? Maybe.

It is tempting to revive the Barbenheimer rivalry from last summer. But, after Barbie comfortably trounced Oppenheimer at the box office, Christopher Nolan’s biopic seems guaranteed to take revenge in the nominations battle. Entertainment Weekly has suggested Oppie could pass out All About Eve and La La Land to break the all-time record with 15 nominations. That would require more actors than the expected three – Murphy, Emily Blunt and Robert Downey Jr – to secure nominations. Matt Damon? Florence Pugh? Precursor awards offer no indications of that happening. But Oppenheimer will surely top the 2024 charts.

The nomination will arrive at lunchtime on Tuesday, January 23rd.

Donald Clarke’s Oscar nominations predictions

(Listed in declining order of likely nomination)

Best picture

• Oppenheimer
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Barbie
• Poor Things
• The Holdovers
• American Fiction
• Maestro
• Past Lives
• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Zone of Interest

The top nine now seem secure. If Jonathan Glazer’s The Zone of Interest, an unnervingly stark Holocaust drama, proves too alienating then the more mainstream Color of Purple is right there. Should the list above prove correct that will mean three films largely in a language other than English and three films directed by women will make the final corral. Feels like progress.

Best director

• Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
• Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
• Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
• Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
• Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

We don’t buy Bafta snubs for Scorsese and Lanthimos as significant. The first is a legend. The second has momentum. The bottom two could go any number of places. Greta Gerwig may well make it in, but the talk is that Anatomy plays strongly with academy audiences. There will be hell to pay if neither woman gets the call.

Best actor

• Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
• Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
• Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
• Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
• Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Feels like the top four and AN Other. Domingo has shown remarkable strength, despite Rustin playing indifferently. He’s made it into Globes, Critics Choice, SAG and Bafta. Leonardo DiCaprio and Andrew Scott are next in line.

Best actress

• Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
• Emma Stone (Poor Things)
• Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
• Margot Robbie (Barbie)
• Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

No notes. Well, some. These five have got in most everywhere – apart from eccentric Bafta of course. It is only two years since someone won best actress here without a Bafta nomination. So Gladstone is still top.

Best supporting actor

• Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
• Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
• Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
• Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
• Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)

Who the heck knows here? The Barbenheimer Two are safe – then it is anyone’s guess. Willem Dafoe could get in over Ruffalo from the same film. Or both. Or neither. Charles Melton from May December could rally after a midseason slump. But the SAG-nominated Brown is much liked.

Best supporting actress

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
• Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
• Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
• Jodie Foster (Nyad)
• Penélope Cruz (Ferrari)

Another puzzler. Randolph is going to win. If Blunt, never nominated, misses again then she is surely cursed. Brooks will be in unless they’ve gone completely cold on Color Purple. I have a feeling about the other two. America Ferrera, Julianne Moore and Sandra Hüller (for Zone of Interest) are waiting.

Best adapted screenplay

• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• American Fiction Barbie
• Barbie

This feels like the easiest of the big categories to predict. What else is getting in? Zone of Interest doesn’t feel like a writer’s film. All of Us Strangers is maybe just outside the Academy’s periphery. Site of some controversy after Barbie tried to wriggle into original screenplay.

Best original screenplay

• The Holdovers
• Past Lives
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Maestro
• May December

Again, this feels right. Could well be the only score for Todd Haynes’s excellent May December. The next two feel like Saltburn and Air. Neither of which I can quite believe

Best animated feature

• The Boy and the Heron
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
• Elemental
• Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
• Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget

Two dead certs and a lot of films that are either mediocre or not in the Academy’s wheelhouse. The battle between Miyazaki’s elegant anime and Sony’s dizzying superhero flick could go either way.

Best documentary feature

• 20 Days in Mariupol
• American Symphony
• Still: A Michael J Fox Movie
• Beyond Utopia
• The Eternal Memory

Not a vintage year. Some good stuff. A lot of so-so treatments of modestly interesting topics. Put the 15 into a hat and shake them all about.

Best international feature

• The Zone of Interest (UK)
• Society of the Snow (Spain)
• Fallen Leaves (Finland)
• The Taste of Things (France)
• Perfect Days (Japan)

France’s puzzling decision not to submit Anatomy of a Fall – which could have given the country its first win in 30 years – opened up the gate for The Zone of Interest. Four Cannes premieres and (in Society of the Snow) a Netflix hit. Par for the current course.