"Glory be to God", as our dear departed friend John L. O'Sullivan would say, but Drapier never thought he would see the shade of Father Devane SJ revisiting us. Only the oldest of Drapier's readers will remember Father Devane SJ, a great man in his time for crusading against "Evil Literature", and much of our censorship laws were influenced by him.
And now he is back, with In Dublin as his target. All Drapier can say is that we are into the silly season. And with a bang. In Drapier's view the only consequence of the ban will be to increase the sales of whatever Mike Hogan chooses to call his magazine, and he will be surprised if George Bermingham, the chairman of the Appeal Board does not deal quickly with the matter when he gets back from wherever it is barristers go on their holidays. The whole thing is ludicrous, especially given what is now available on the top shelf of any country newsagent.
Mind you, the silly season has taken longer to arrive this year. The tribunals and the North provided sufficient hard news to keep it at bay. But when you hear Noel Dempsey talking about electoral reform you know it is a year since last August. When Mary Harney talks about negotiating the programme for government after the PDs have tied down virtually anything that moves, or Harry Blaney and Jackie Healy- Rae tell us their support is conditional, then we are well and truly into the silly season.
First electoral reform. Noel Dempsey has, it is true, been beating this particular drum for some considerable time and he seems to be serious about it all. His analysis of the defects of the current system are fair enough, especially the wasteful competition between colleagues which often ends up as no more than pandering to all, and doing things which people should be well capable of doing for themselves.
But would a different electoral system change what is now a deeply ingrained national characteristic? Drapier has real doubts on this score and he also asks if we really want a two-tiered system of TDs, as Noel Dempsey's proposals would produce.
Drapier does take Noel Dempsey seriously and the questions he raises do bear thinking about. But he sees little prospect of change - first because most of us politicians are a conservative lot, creatures of habit who prefer the known to the unknown.
The only way we will get electoral reform is to get a fair degree of consensus across the various political groups, and at present Drapier sees no evidence of any such agreement; the contrary in fact, with people analysing Noel Dempsey's motives and trying to find the Fianna Fail angle on the whole exercise.
The other reason Drapier sees no chance of change is that by most criteria our present system works well. We don't get the massively disproportionate majorities of the British system; minorities get a fair deal, governments cannot appear to take the House too much for granted and the inevitability of coalitions is a good thing, forcing us to work with each other and listen to each other.
Electoral reform then is not going to happen, certainly not this August, nor next August either for that matter.
Nor will Jackie Healy-Rae, Harry Blaney, Mildred Fox and Tom Gildea bring down the Government. The huffing and puffing of the last few weeks is no more than that. The demands are made when the Dail is not sitting and in no danger of having to face an opposition ambush or a vote.
Nor will Harry Blaney's referendum on abortion happen in the lifetime of this Dail. Bertie Ahern will not say this in quite such blunt terms. But given that the Government is still in the "consultative process", and this will be followed by green papers and white papers, and any other colour you like, the possibilities for prevarication are endless. All the more so since few enough in here, or outside for that matter, have any stomach for a rerun that will generate stridency and bitterness, and end up pleasing nobody.
So Harry Blaney will get an assurance and will continue to get VIP treatment on all issues relating to Donegal. But he won't get a definite date, and he won't bring the Government down. Unless by accident, as Drapier will explain later.
What Mildred Fox would most like would be to get the pressure taken off her by Dick Roche, and she won't get that for Dick Roche is a driven man with a long memory. But Mildred will get her continuing share of good news for her constituents, and there was nothing in the local election results to encourage her to de stabilise the current situation.
As far as Drapier can see, Tom Gildea has settled in very well, enjoys being a TD, and as things stand will hold his seat. Tom is an astute operator with no ambition to upset anyone, least of all himself.
Likewise, Drapier can see that Jackie Healy-Rae has three main ambitions - to hold on to his seat, deliver the goods to South Kerry and annoy John O'Donoghue. It was no accident that Jackie's main grievance concerns the licensing laws and the botched attempt at piecemeal reform before the summer recess. John O'Donoghue is, of course, the man responsible and he will remain in Jackie's line of fire over the coming weeks.
There is, however, one real danger for the Independents and it lies in their upping the ante on an issue where they cannot turn back. The only such issue is abortion, where any or all concerned may find themselves under severe pressure from local pressure groups and may give commitments which leave them with no alternative. It has happened before and could happen again, all too easily.
If they do, then the ensuing crisis will be of their own making. If it happens it could destabilise the Government. It's probably the only issue with such potential. It's a sleeping dog which Harry Blaney has chosen to kick at this particular point. If he continues to kick, anything is possible. Effectively the choice is his and his alone.
