No victory parades. No triumphalism. That was the message that went out to Sinn Fein supporters about the IRA's statement announcing a restoration of its ceasefire. Compared with August l994, the arrival of peace the second time around was a muted affair. There was a notable lack of flowers and champagne on the Falls Road. Instead Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness addressed a press conference at which the emphasis was on hard work and the difficulties that lie ahead.

This was deliberate. The Sinn Fein leaders know very well there is a great deal of scepticism about this second ceasefire and needed to make the point that they are approaching negotiations in a more realistic way.

This matched the mood right across Northern Ireland which is, at best, one of severely qualified hope. This isn't just because the last ceasefire broke down or because of reports in yesterday's papers that the IRA is to review this new cessation after a few months. It is also because of all that has happened in the meantime. Both communities have been damaged, particularly by the horrifying rise in sectarian bitterness which has been so evident in recent months. In some ways this has been even more frightening than paramilitary violence because it can't be turned off by an announcement phoned to RTE.

Lawrence Martin, the father of 18year-old Bernadette, said that he hoped his daughter's death would be the last such tragedy of the Troubles. But how does a divided society begin to heal the kind of hate which prompts someone to steal into a small house in the dead of night and shoot four bullets into the head of a sleeping teenager?

Against this background, it is difficult to feel hopeful about the future. But there is evidence that this ceasefire has been much more carefully structured than was the case in l994.

Much was made at the time of the importance of the "pan-nationalist front", whose political clout (to say nothing of its Machiavellian cunning) stretched from west Belfast to the White House.

But, looking back now, it's clear that in some ways it was both naive and ill-prepared for the practical difficulties that lay ahead. So much effort was devoted, quite understandably, to persuading the IRA to end its campaign of violence that copper-fastening the details of what should follow the ceasefire was virtually ignored.

Perhaps, as some Sinn Fein sources now say, the republican movement was simply bounced into it too early by the rest of the pan-nationalist front. Whatever the reasons, it was as though Sinn Fein and the Irish government, having delivered the prize of peace, expected everything else to follow - early admission to talks, the release of prisoners, economic and political reforms that would build confidence in the republican ghettos of the North. When the British government failed to deliver, using decommissioning as an excuse, the whole peace process began to disintegrate..

One only has to look at the documents that have already been published - the correspondence between the British government and Sinn Fein etc. - to see how much more care has gone into preparing the ground for this second ceasefire. The i's have been dotted and the t's crossed.

The most obvious example of this is the fact that Tony Blair has accepted, quite explicitly, the arguments which John Hume made to John Major last October. Decommissioning will not be allowed to block the talks progress or used as an excuse to expel Sinn Fein. Besides this, concrete pledges have been given by both governments on a whole range of issues - the release and treatment of republican prisoners, legislation to deal with Orange parades, assurances on measures to deal with equality and parity of esteem, as well as the more immediate topics like a time-frame for talks and how these will be structured.

It isn't simply that new governments in Dublin and London are somehow more sympathetically disposed to work for peace. The real change is that both Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair have serious political reasons for wanting to achieve a settlement in Northern Ireland as quickly as possible, and are in a position to take the risks that are necessarily involved in moving the situation forward.

There is no reason to doubt reports that the Taoiseach has been working night and day to bring the republican movement to the point where it feels sufficiently confident to call a new ceasefire. Of course he wants peace, but he also has a strong vested interest in a good news story for Fianna Fail that will shift Charles Haughey (and his former colleagues in cabinet) off the front pages. Cynical? Not at all. Politics works best when strongly rooted in self-interest.

Tony Blair is in a different situation, but he too has political reasons - quite apart from his ordinary, decent humanity which nobody would want to deny - for being prepared to take quite substantial risks to get a settlement in the North.

I wrote a few weeks ago in The Irish Times that the new British Prime Minister is a moderniser who sees himself as a leader for the next century. The conflict in the North, and the failure of successive British governments to resolve it, offend and embarrass him.

He has embarked on a programme of major constitutional reform in the United Kingdom and does not want Northern Ireland muddying that agenda. One of the most striking aspects of his approach has been his determination to move ahead very fast. If the North's politicians cannot cut a deal by next May, "the two governments will continue to pursue rapid progress to an overall agreed settlement". The plan is that this will be put to a referendum in both parts of Ireland, thus cutting the ground from under the extremists on both sides.

It may not work, but at least it is putting it up to all the politicians in the North that if they want a say in shaping the future, they had better get down to the serious business of negotiations without delay. This is going to involve difficult choices for nationalists and unionists.

The Prime Minister is to see David Trimble today to try and persuade him not to walk out of the talks process. Having squared Sinn Fein, he may now offer the Ulster Unionist leader some concession to make it possible for him to keep his party in play. If so Sinn Fein, and even more the Government, should think very hard indeed before shouting "foul". If the phrase "inclusive talks" means anything, the unionists have to be there.