A revolution is taking place in strategic thinking about our attitudes to older people, writes Haydn Shaughnessy.

The distinguished American economist JK Galbraith once described conventional wisdom as the easy path in life. Rather than reflecting wisdom it reflects those facts or opinions we find easiest to assimilate.

The conventional wisdom on our ageing society is that it brings with it various crises: in pensions, health spending, and personal health. The facts, however, suggest a picture that would, were conventional wisdom removed for a few minutes, be the cause of serious celebration.

Although Ireland still has a significantly worse mortality rate than the rest of the industrialised west - the death rate for women aged between 65 and 85 and for men between 75 and 85 is 20 per cent higher - mortality from heart disease has declined by nearly 50 per cent since 1980. Overall death rates have fallen by 40 per cent in the same period.

These remarkable figures, prepared by the Dublin-based Society of Actuaries (SA), which advises the insurance industry on the risks associated with ill health, do not suggest crisis. So is conventional wisdom acting dumb? Conventional wisdom says improved mortality means more people will suffer degenerative diseases such as heart disease, cancer and Alzheimer's for longer.

"One of the difficulties in Ireland," says Aisling Kennedy, SA's director of professional affairs, "is the lack of data on the state of people's health in old age. International evidence is mixed. There are studies that show that the incidence of ill health is increasing and studies that don't. On balance it would appear that serious ill health is being postponed."

In other words, serious ill health is not necessarily growing in duration as we live longer. The point at which we might encounter it, if at all, is some years later than it would have been 20 years ago.

"I think there's a misapprehension," adds Kennedy, "because people are comparing their own future with that of people 20 years ago. But their prognosis is much better today - and that of the 60 and 70 year old in 20 years' time will be vastly different."

Another deeply ingrained assumption is that all these people living longer will inevitably lead to a pensions crisis. But the current retirement age was first set at the turn of the 20th century, when life expectancy was not vastly different from retirement age.

If a retirement age were to be set today using similar criteria it would be closer to 80. The pensions crisis would be yesterday's news.

THE EXPERIENCE OF age is also at odds with conventional wisdom, for some. At the recent Oscars the beautiful 61-year-old Helen Mirren picked up the prize for best actress, a reward for reaching the peak of her creative powers. American actor/director Clint Eastwood has been nominated for no fewer than six Oscars since 2003. He is 76. James Joyce published Finnegan's Wake when he was 57.

In contrast, researchers at the University of Pittsburgh point out, tennis players reach their peak at age 24, runners at age 28, golfers at 31.

In some areas of our lives, seemingly the creative ones, we can just keep getting better.

Chuck Nyren, an American marketing consultant and author of Marketing to Baby Boomers, believes our impression of age can be attributed to changes within the global marketing industry.

"The top people in advertising from the 1920s through the early 1960s were in their 40s, 50s and 60s when they did their best work. That all changed in the late 60s. We created the 19-34 demographic. This was our blind spot - and it's come back to haunt us." Advertisers, says Nyren, continue to regard the 19-34 age group as their key market, neglecting the fact that many of the most important spending decisions are made by people in their 50s. In the West 61 per cent of all new cars are bought by the over-50s.

Kevin Lavery, who runs Millennium, the only ad agency exclusively targeting the older age group, points out that "over 50s in employment outspend their under 50 counterparts by a massive 20 per cent - you wouldn't think that by looking at most of the advertising these days." Another specialist in the ageing market is Laurel Kennedy who runs the Think Tank/Consultancy Age Lessons.

"I can tell you that classical marketing training focuses on four age segments: babies/kids, teens, 18-25 and 25-49. Then consumers apparently drop off the earth."

The emphasis on selling to the younger market means that we are surrounded by images that exude youthfulness while excluding constructive images of ageing, despite the fact that older people are the ones buying the products the advertisers wish to sell. The conventional wisdom in marketing is apparently as bizarrely distorted as the conventional wisdom on ageing.

Contrary to received opinion renowned age researcher Brad Willcox who studies ageing patterns in the Far East, and co-wrote The Okinawa Way, reports that the experience of age can be of increasingly healthy longevity.

WILCOX RECENTLY COMPLETED a study that followed American-Japanese men in Hawaii over 40 years. He found that the steps needed to improve health deep into old age are relatively simple to implement. "There appears to be a lot we can do about modifying our risk and increasing the odds for aging more healthfully," says Willcox, and he cites as key factors giving up smoking, not drinking excessive amounts of alcohol, staying active, being educated beyond secondary level and being married.

Expert evidence nonetheless continues to underline the dangers of the changing demographic structure. Right now there are six people in the workforce for every Irish pensioner. By 2050 that will be two people working per pensioner. Not if we introduce flexible retirement or constructively extend the working life.

On current trends there is expected to be a 74 per cent increase in people with severe disabilities over that same period. Not if we raise educational standards, encourage long-term relationships, and exercise more.

Policies towards pensions and health appear to reinforce a conventional wisdom that, viewed against the evidence, is unduly pessimistic. While we may assess our own futures with reference to those of our parents many of us are nonetheless getting the fact that ageing is actually good. Policymakers on the other hand draw on current experience to create images of crisis, ignoring the fact that a new conventional wisdom is out there and attuned to the novelty of an extraordinary gift - much longer, healthier lives.