Somebody, somewhere wants to put Mrs Robinson on top of the world

BRITISH newspapers have lavished extraordinary praise on Mrs Robinson in the past week

BRITISH newspapers have lavished extraordinary praise on Mrs Robinson in the past week. What is most extraordinary about it is that they are almost all drawing the same conclusion the Secretary General of the UN, Dr Boutros Boutros Ghali, should be denied a second term in office, and should be replaced by the President of Ireland at the end of this year.

The US magazine The Nation and the Wall Street Journal in recent months have made the same case very strongly. Between Tuesday and Thursday this week the Financial Times, the Times and the London Independent did likewise. Six weeks ago the Observer devoted a half page to the cause, while last week the Economist compared her favourably to Queen Elizabeth and again said she was widely tipped for the UN job.

"The amount of media publicity speaks of organisation," says one European diplomat who spent several years at the UN. "There seems to be too much of it to be otherwise.

"Clearly all this stuff is being planted," says another observer.

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The question is by whom and why? There is no suggestion that Mrs Robinson is involved in any such media campaign. She says she is not a candidate and she seems uncomfortable at the regularity with which she is asked about the job.

But she has admirers at the UN, particularly among those who have argued and campaigned for radical UN reform in recent years. If the President and her advisers in Ireland are not involved in orchestrating a media campaign, UN watchers believe that her supporters at the UN may be.

She has a rather important admirer in the White House, too. Mrs Hillary Rodham Clinton writes a weekly column syndicated to newspapers in the US and elsewhere. This week she writes. "An extraordinary woman is coming to the White House next week Mary Robinson, the President of Ireland. She is also a mother, a human rights lawyer, a law professor, a force for reconciliation between Protestants and Catholics and a voice for women all over the world."

Mrs Robinson said in London this week that she was trying hard to dampen down discussion about the UN job, saying that her focus is on completing her presidential term. She did, however, say a few things to the London Independent which served to increase speculation.

In an interview published last Tuesday, she revealed that "informal approaches" had been made about the UN job and said. "If it went to the wire about this position, I would have to weigh all the options, which would be very difficult".

She answered questions about what the job should entail. "There is a seeking for a global ethic. In a world that seems to have lost all spiritual cohesiveness, many people feel we need an ethical basis that values religions, that values a secular tradition and is thoughtful about others."

She repeated "I am not a candidate or seeking the position. I have made clear that my focus is on completing my term as President". Mrs Robinson is indeed not a candidate, nor is anyone at this stage, except perhaps the incumbent, Dr Ghali. "It's not likely that any other candidate will come forward unless Boutros Boutros Ghali is vetoed or drops out of the race," says the European diplomat.

Dr Ghali has not yet announced whether he will seek a second term as UN Secretary General when his five year stint finishes at the end of the year. The US has still not said it will have him.

The Americans, however, blame Dr Ghali for bureaucratic inefficiency at the UN and are also angered by his sometimes independent political stance most notably just last month when he authorised the publication of a report which strongly condemned the Israeli shelling of a UN base in southern Lebanon. Whether the US administration in an election year will make the effort to unseat Dr Ghali is unclear.

Several UN watchers spoken to this week said they have no doubt that the recent media reporting on Mrs Robinson's prospects for the UN job has been orchestrated. "Is it being planted for the right reasons?" asks one. "Is it coming from those who genuinely want to see Mrs Robinson get the job, or is it from people who want to undermine Ghali and are using her as a stalking horse?"

She would make a good stalking horse. A 73 year old career politician presiding over an unwieldy faction ridden bureaucracy looks particularly bad when a popular, relatively young woman (52) with great moral authority is put forward as an alternative.

Dr Ghali is regarded as a poor manager despite having implemented some cutbacks. He is sometimes seen as lacking diplomacy, such as when he told Bosnians that theirs was a "rich man's war", and, when visiting Sarajevo, informing the populace and the world's press that he could think of 10 places worse off.

His term has seen spectacular UN peacekeeping catastrophes in former Yugoslavia, Rwanda and Somalia. These owe as much to the indecisiveness of member states as to an inefficient UN bureaucracy, but as the top man, Dr Ghali is identified with these failures.

If he goes, there is no shortage of possible contenders. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Ms Sadako Ogata, is a highly successful senior UN figure. Her agency, the UNHCR, has responded rapidly and decisively to the humanitarian crises in Rwanda and former Yugoslavia.

The name of Norway's Prime Minister, Ms Gro Harlem Brundtland, has floated around, as have up to half a dozen others with lesser degrees of seriousness.

Mrs Robinson has influential supporters. This week, Britain's former permanent representative at the UN, Sir Anthony Parsons, spoke favourably of her prospects. In the US, Senator Ted Kennedy is one of several very senior figures said to favour her candidature, although he denies actually campaigning on her behalf. Sir Brian Urquhart, a retired British senior UN figure who is still perhaps the most influential of those seeking reform of the UN Secretary General's role, is also an admirer.

But some senior diplomats believe her lack of management experience may count against her for the top job, but that a major UN agency could be within her sights. "She has identified herself with humanitarian and socio economic issues," says the European diplomat.

The UNHCR and UNICEF are the UN's two major "humanitarian agencies" and Mrs Robinson's profile could well suit them. The recently established High Commissioner for Human Rights post would particularly suit a former president who was previously a lawyer with a major interest in human rights issues.

AT UNICEF in New York, an American, Ms Carol Bellamy, was appointed last year and her term will therefore continue until 1999 or later. But at the UNHCR and the UN Commission for Human Rights the top jobs may become vacant very shortly after Mrs Robinson's presidential term finishes at the end of 1997.

At the UNHCR in Geneva, Mrs Sadako Ogata's term finishes in 1998. However, the post of UN Commissioner for Human Rights might particularly suit Mrs Robinson's profile and background as a lawyer interested in that area. Mr Jose Ayalo Lasso, of Ecuador, was appointed to that post in January 1994 for a four year term, which finishes almost exactly as the President's term does. The incumbent is, however, eligible for a second term.

There may be another alternative. Amid the clamour for UN reform, the idea of appointing a senior manager in charge of UN development assistance has emerged as a key proposal. Such a person would be at undersecretary general or assistant secretary general level and would be responsible for coordinating the work of UN agencies which work too much as independent freedoms at present.

The G7 Summit in Lyon at the end of this month has UN reform as a major agenda item. At that time, the future of Dr Ghali may become clearer, while the French, who are very keen on the idea of a UN "development supremo", are likely to promote the idea further.

Next week Mrs Robinson visits the US, where she will address the Foreign Policy Association in New York. She will present the US ambassador to the UN, Ms Madeleine Albright, with a medal from the association. She is also due to have talks with President Clinton and his advisers and meet the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee.

To have a chance of the secretary general ship or any other senior UN job, an Irish candidate would need Government support. There has been speculation that private clashes between the President and the present Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Spring, might lead to less than enthusiastic support from Dublin.

People close to Mr Spring dismiss this. According to one, they believe that Mrs Robinson is genuinely committed to seeing out the presidential term to which she was elected. "But if she was satisfied that she wanted to do this [the UN post] and wasn't being used in any way by people anxious to get rid of the incumbent, Ireland's Foreign Minister would back her with great enthusiasm."