Soundbites are last rites at talks

THE title of the movie could be Requiem For A Settlement

THE title of the movie could be Requiem For A Settlement. The multi-party talks at Stormont were adjourned yesterday, not with a bang, or with a whimper, but with a series of soundbites.

Reporters and camera crews mooched about wondering how to breathe life into a story that was slipping further down the news agenda with every passing hour.

"We're not going to hear anything we haven't heard before," said one of the journalists waiting for the political leaders to emerge and strut their stuff. Another journalist got up to leave and was jocosely challenged by a colleague: "You're not going before the Last Rites, are you?"

The nine-month gestation had produced, as the Alliance leader Lord Alderdice said, not even a mouse. One observer summed up the proceedings as "four funerals and a funeral".

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It would have been funny if it wasn't so sad. A huge investment of time and energy had gone into the talks, to little or no avail.

The gloomy prediction of the Government adviser Fergus Finlay, that talks without Sinn Fein would not be worth a penny candle, received a melancholy confirmation.

The unionist point of view is that the talks could have been worth quite a lot if the nationalist side was not so fixated on having Sinn Fein at the table. But the real politik is that there can be no SDLP-UUP deal until Sinn Fein is, to paraphrase the late Lyndon Johnson, "inside the tent looking out, instead of outside the tent looking in".

A day like yesterday tests one's faith in the political process, yet George Mitchell was patently and impressively sincere when he repeated there was no alternative to meaningful democratic dialogue and he promised to be back again on June 3rd.

He insisted there had been "steps forward, however small". Although he had felt discouraged and frustrated at times, he denied he had ever felt hopeless. He reaffirmed his faith in the desire of the people of Northern Ireland to lead lives free of violence and the threat of violence.

There is no law against cruelty to statesmen yet it seems a waste of the time and talents of Mitchell, General John de Chastelain and former Prime Minister Harri Holkeri to have had them sit watching paint dry since last June.

Even sources in the UK Unionist Party agreed Fergus Finlay had been proved right: the talks had been designed to draw in Sinn Fein but the republicans never took up the offer.

There was a clash between the Tanaiste and the Rev Ian Paisley over Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution. The DUP leader claimed afterwards he had gotten under the "thick skin" of Dick Spring. Sources close to Mr Spring said he had "shrugged off" the attack.

Monica McWilliams of the Women's Coalition made the point that the "ghost of Sinn Fein" had haunted the talks so much that the party might as well have been there.

Outside, in the real world, there were rumours and reports of intense activity by SDLP and Sinn Fein leaders to put pressure on the British government to come up with a date for Sinn Fein's entry into talks in return for an IRA ceasefire.

Since the talks are now due to resume on June 3rd, there will probably be a focus on that date as the possible time for Sinn Fein to arrive at the table.

It is understood that the IRA is "signed on" if only John Major will deliver. Even sources in the Ulster Unionist Party agree there could well be another ceasefire soon - although they believe it would be a tactical move rather than a genuine conversion to non-militarist politics.

For the Northern Ireland Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew, yesterday was not the last hurrah, since persons in his position rarely get a cheer, but it was the de facto end of his five-year tenure. However, he declined to reflect on whether he felt a sense of achievement or failure. Nor would he be drawn into an assessment of the last nine months of the Northern Ireland Forum. "If I have a view I don't choose to express it," he said.

DICK Spring was, as the song says, "accentuating the positive". Admitting there had been an "element of frustration", he made the point that "at the same time we have had a talks process".

Mr Spring says that, at least, all the parties except Sinn Fein are still talking to each other, but the lack of substantive progress raises serious doubts about how long the talks can survive after June 3rd.

By then, of course, we will have had the British general election and possibly even the Irish one. Many believe only a British government with a clear majority of at least 30 seats (some say 50) will feel strong enough to resist unionist anger and give the republican movement the guarantees it is seeking.

Lines of communication between Sinn Fein and elements of the British Labour Party have reportedly been busy. The possibility of a strong Sinn Fein showing in the Westminster election, combined with the offer of an IRA ceasefire, might well concentrate the minds of an incoming Lab our government. Yet senior UUP sources regard the prospect of Lab our in Downing Street with considerable equanimity. They say they are very comfortable with Tony Blair and point out that there is a significant element of the Labour Party that would be sympathetic to the unionist case.

ON the security front, the loyalist ceasefire is beginning to look distinctly ragged. There was no definite information as to who planted the bomb near the Sinn Fein office in Monaghan but whoever it was must have known it would be profoundly unhelpful to the political elements of loyalism.

And, meanwhile, the White House has reportedly been planning to make quite a fuss of the loyalist politicians on St Patrick's Day, in order to make the point to Sinn Fein that "there but for an IRA ceasefire go you".