The collapse of Adi Roche's vote in the presidential election campaign, dropping from 22 per cent to 13 per cent in the space of three weeks, makes this a two-woman race. And while Dick Spring can expect the brickbats which always fly when an adventurous political manoeuvre doesn't come off, it seems at this stage that Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney will be able to bask in the rosy glow of success.
Mary McAleese, the joint nominee of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats, is leading the field by a comfortable margin. And while her first-preference support base has eroded by three percentage points since the last Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll in September, it would take an extraordinary effort by Fine Gael's nominee, Mary Banotti, to bridge the gap.
John Bruton will heave a sigh of relief over the foundering of the Labour Party challenge, which was backed by Democratic Left and the Green Party. Fine Gael, according to these figures, will return to its rightful place in the political pecking order, even if it fails to secure the ultimate prize through the election of Ms Banotti.
That objective is still regarded by party planners as being within the bounds of possibility. And they look to a sharp, party political campaign and a possible Banotti/Roche voting pact as the means to that end.
The late entry by Derek Nally into the election seems to have done terminal damage to the hopes of Ms Roche. Lagging by a single point behind Ms Banotti in mid-September, the gap between Ms Roche and Ms Banotti jumped to 11 points in the current opinion poll when Mr Nally attracted a support base of 7 per cent. The champion of Victim Support mopped up votes which were quarried almost exclusively from Ms Roche's following, and his showing in Dublin was particularly strong.
Dana, Mrs Rosemary Scallon, failed to make progress over the past few weeks and is still stuck at 7 per cent.
The relatively static nature of the voting trends involving the two leading candidates, and the fact that they draw a maximum of 50 per cent from their nominating parties, would suggest that both may still be vulnerable to an aggressive campaign, particularly from Mr Nally, as an independent candidate. But Mr Nally is so far adrift at this stage that it seems an impossible task.
The Labour Party's disastrous showing in the general election, followed by a failure to rekindle the kind of campaign that elected Mary Robinson in 1990, is certain to be used against Mr Spring by his critics. His public appeal to the party to rally behind Ms Roche's candidature has been ignored. Last September Ms Roche attracted 42 per cent of Labour Party support; in this poll, the figure falls to 33 per cent.
There has been a similar, negative shift towards Ms McAleese's candidature within the Progressive Democrats. The difficulties of the Coalition Government and the handling of events leading up to the resignation of Mr Ray Burke as Minister for Foreign Affairs may have caused that collapse in support.
Last September 56 per cent of Progressive Democrats supporters were preparing to vote for Ms McAleese on the recommendation of Ms Harney. By last weekend the percentage had fallen to 24 per cent. Worse, Mary Banotti was attracting 28 per cent support from the Progressive Democrats.
BUT nothing succeeds like success. And if the gamble Mary Harney took in endorsing Ms McAleese's candidature pays off in a win for the Government parties, all will be forgotten and forgiven.
Apart from gaining support from the Progressive Democrats, Mary Banotti's showing is quite static in terms of class and regions.
And while Mary McAleese has lost three points, to 32 per cent, her support profile with the electorate is quite uniform and she has overtaken Ms Banotti in Dublin.
But the election will be won or lost on voting transfers. And Ms McAleese matches, or beats, Ms Banotti in the race for all second-preference votes.
The elimination of Dana would benefit Ms Banotti and Ms McAleese equally. According to the poll findings, they would each get 26 per cent of her vote, with Adi Roche taking 17 per cent and Derek Nally 11 per cent.
The departure of Mr Nally would give Ms McAleese 38 per cent of his vote, compared to 26 per cent for Ms Banotti and 10 per cent for Ms Roche.
Ms Roche's elimination would provide Ms McAleese with a marginal advantage of 39 per cent of her transfers, compared to 38 per cent for Ms Banotti.
On the basis of that snapshot in time, Ms Banotti and Fine Gael will find it hard, if not impossible, to beat Ms McAleese. The remarkable consistency in voting transfer intentions would suggest that even a last-minute voting transfer pact between Labour and Fine Gael might not be enough to change the result.
