The recent study on the points system as reported in The Irish Times of July 27th, 1999 comes as anxious students and parents await the results of the Leaving Certificate examination.

The study was commissioned as part of the work of the Points Commission. It raises new issues, particularly on alleged differences in performance between the sexes, and its findings have received attracted wide publicity. These deserve some critical assessment.

The report is divided into two parts. The first provides a useful review of work undertaken internationally on this topic, including some in Ireland.

This shows that entry qualifications based on second-level results provide a reasonable, but far from perfect, predictor of performance at third level with factors such as institution, field of study and background of the student all having an effect on the relationship.

The second part of the report uses a survey to examine the relationship between points and final award at third level. It confirms a real but weak relationship.

The survey involved taking a sample from all 20,885 first-time entrants in 1992 across the universities, institutes of technology and colleges of education, comprising 27 institutions in all. The scope of the study was commendably ambitious but its main objective was poorly served by the design of the study, and the sample size of just 449 students ultimately realised.

Such a small sample is hardly adequate to provide reliable estimates of overall measures on a national basis.

A summary analysis based on such limited data runs the serious risk of confounding different relationships. A result will be misleading statements such as that in the report on the "non-linear" relationship between points and degree/diploma awards. This apparent anomaly disappears when the data for the university and the institute of technology sectors are examined separately.

An important issue raised in the report is that of the proportion of entrants who leave without obtaining any qualification. Setting aside the matter of reliability of the study, the very high completion rate, by international standards, achieved by the universities and colleges of education should be a source of satisfaction to the Government and taxpayer, with only 4 per cent of all entrants failing to complete first year and 9 per cent failing to obtain a degree within four years.

The latter figure is particularly good in both absolute and relative terms, given that it seems to include some students whose degree programmes exceed four years. The comparable figures for the institutes of technology are higher at 25 per cent and 33 per cent respectively, but in line with comparable programmes in other countries, according to the report.

The issue of gender caught the attention of the media because of the assertion in the report that women, despite entering third level with points which are on average above those of men, do not receive a proportionate share of the higher honours awards.

Specific mention is made of first and upper second-class honours university degrees in the humanities, with some implication that this could relate to bias in the assessment procedure. This would be serious were it true - but is it?

Here again the data analysis is suspect. The split between the sexes in a degree programme can be highly variable, with men and women opting for different subjects.

With inadequate data, differences between the subjects in the proportion of honours awarded is liable to be mistakenly attributed to differences between the sexes. Judgment on the report's conclusions in that regard should be reserved.

Indeed, variation in the proportion of honours awards between different fields of study and type of institution is noted in the report. This is well known internationally. What is new is the implication in the report that students with comparable performances in the Leaving Certificate should expect to achieve similar levels of achievement at third level regardless of their field of study.

This is naive, and overlooks the specialised nature of third-level education by comparison with second level. There is no obvious equivalence between the same grade of honours in subjects as different as physics, business studies and physiotherapy, and the special abilities required to do well in each may not be apparent at second level. Degree awards are made with reference to the norms of the particular subject, with high honours indicative of a capacity for further advanced study in that subject.

Subjects can differ in their difficulty and emphases, and an effort to impose some standardisation of awards at third level on the basis of second-level results would be misguided. It is the case, however, that competition between graduates for places on postgraduate courses does require informed judgments on degrees in different institutions.

The difficult matter of equivalence between qualifications also arises at second level. The calculation of a numerical score based on results in a national examination such as the Leaving Certificate provides a highly-convenient automated process for allocating places at third level.

This is now so well established that it has created an exaggerated sense of the existence of some absolute, universal and calibrated scale of qualification.

The real weakness in the points system as currently operated is not its limited capacity to predict future performance but rather its failure to accommodate qualifications other than the Leaving Certificate.

Over the past decade Ireland has seen the rapid expansion of a thriving sector of further education offering qualifications at post-Leaving Certificate level.

Few, if any, of these qualifications are currently credited with points, and opportunities for entry to third level other than directly from second level are limited. Decisions on comparability of awards will not be easy, but the introduction of a National Qualifications Act by the Minister for Education and Science is a very welcome initiative.

The challenge for all involved in higher education is to create multiple routes of entry and to recognise the vital importance of opportunity and motivation in addition to formal qualification.

Prof Aidan Moran is registrar and vice-president for academic affairs at University College Cork. He writes here in a personal capacity.