Even before the Late, Late Show the word was out that "Pee" Flynn was unlikely to be renominated as Ireland's Commissioner to the EU. An autumn statement by London-based property developer Tom Gilmartin, that he had paid him £50,000 in the late 1980s, was the kiss of political death.

The Flood tribunal had become involved. Statements were taken, bank accounts were perused, and a record of the payment could not be found at head office. The position of the former Fianna Fail joint treasurer was fraught. In those circumstances, how could Bertie Ahern appoint him while he was, at the same time, seeking to distance the party from the Moriarty and Flood tribunals by championing new penalties under the Ethics in Public Office Act?

What would his partners in government think? More importantly, what would they do?

In 1992, Des O'Malley observed that Charlie Haughey's departure from power had been bought by "a strategy that involved Albert Reynolds's reliance on the determination of the Progressive Democrats to maintain the standards and credibility of the government".

In other words, Mr Reynolds depended on the PDs to pull the plug if Mr Haughey didn't go quietly when he was found to have lied over the Sean Doherty phone-tapping affair. The Fianna Fail parliamentary party had done the rest.

It was all about power: holding it and exercising it. While there were those in Fianna Fail - including Mr Flynn - who took pleasure in Mr Haughey's departure, the bottom line was being in government.

This time, there is no grand strategy by party dissidents to topple Bertie Ahern by working through Mr Flynn. The man's popularity rating is such that he is untouchable both within and outside Fianna Fail.

However, he is not going to take unnecessary risks by offering comfort to Mr Flynn or by alienating him prematurely. Mr Ahern needs his considerable abilities in the negotiations leading up to the allocation of EU Structural and Cohesion Funds next June. In 1995, even Fergus Finlay was deeply impressed by his skills. So it is a question of keeping the Commissioner sweet.

The Taoiseach said no decision would be taken on the nomination until after the June European elections. Strangely enough, he did not mention the structural funds and his reliance on Mr Flynn. It was a matter of keeping all options open.

It's all politics. The Late Late appearance by Mr Flynn was seen as a bold pre-emptive strike at grabbing a third term as commissioner against the odds. The Gilmartin allegation had supposedly fizzled when the builder announced he would not give evidence before Mr Justice Flood and, with the heat off, Mr Flynn went for it.

There is a great rule in political life: if in trouble, muddy the waters. Fianna Fail is a skilled practitioner in the art. Hardly had Mr Flynn's solo run got himself and the party into trouble than senior party figures were speculating about the identity of the next commissioner.

Gerard Collins MEP, former Minister for Foreign Affairs and vice-president of the European Parliament, was first out of the traps, but while he had lots of form, he had little staying power. Within days, he had been consigned to the also-rans.

Two former commissioners, Ray MacSharry and Michael O'Kennedy, were next up, but Mr MacSharry was felt to be interested primarily in business matters and the minority nature of the Government told against Mr O'Kennedy. Brian Crowley MEP also got a brief mention. Pat Cox MEP, former general secretary of the Progressive Democrats and leader of the Liberals in the European Parliament, got a brief mention before disappearing into the Coalition's persona non grata box.

In a really creative burst of activity, Fianna Fail came up with the names of Maire Geoghegan-Quinn, recently appointed by the Government to the board of Aer Lingus; David Byrne, the Attorney General, and Alan Dukes, former leader of Fine Gael. Ms Geoghegan-Quinn had the qualities, all right, but did she have the ear of the Taoiseach? Did he still hold a grudge for the way she had treated him in cabinet?

Fianna Fail politicians knew little of Mr Byrne, other than he appeared to be a safe pair of hands, following their earlier, traumatic experiences. There was a precedent in the appointment of Peter Sutherland.

The name of Mr Dukes just sat there, bringing back memories of the last time a Fine Gael man had been appointed to the position.

Charlie Haughey had put in Dick Burke in the fond expectation of winning the subsequent by-election in Dublin West - and had lost. Would Bertie gamble on winning a by-election in Kildare? Would Mr Dukes bite if the bait was dangled in front of him? It was nightmare territory for John Bruton. After all, there was a precedent.

If justification was required, wasn't Dick Spring being promoted by the Government as European spokesman on Common Foreign and Security Policy? If the former leader of the Labour Party got the job, that would strengthen the Government's position and generate a later by-election. What was sauce for the Labour Party goose was surely condiment for Fine Gael gander.

A succession race was the easiest way to tell the public that Mr Flynn was yesterday's man, but breaking the news to members of the Cabinet and the parliamentary party that they were not in line for the plum job had to be handled with care. The best way was to identify a bigger and juicier consolation prize, purely in the Taoiseach's gift.

Think European Court of Auditors. Think Barry Desmond. The seven-year term of the former Labour Party minister is due to expire in February 2000. As a Fianna Fail source said gleefully, it pays even better than the position of commissioner.

With such goodies on offer over the next 12 months, who would challenge Mr Ahern's authority? There are local and European elections to fight and win. If the opinion poll figures hold up, an overall Dail majority might not be out of the question. That would be serious political power. The only obvious hurdles in the way are the Flood and Moriarty tribunals.