THE senior RUC officer was reflecting on a "bad week" of violence, the worst since the IRA ceasefire was called almost three years ago. He said simply: "It doesn't look good."
The IRA and questionably the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC) were keeping relatively quiet, although suspected of kindling the embers of violence. This time the trouble was coming from the fringes.
The Irish National Liberation Army, rather surprisingly, had emerged from the shadow of the IRA to murder a defenceless policeman in a gay bar. Dissident loyalists from mid Ulster took revenge in typical sectarian fashion, by murdering a stalwart of the GAA from Bellaghy.
The Continuity Army Council, whose philosophy is in line with that of Republican Sinn Fein, says it will attack British army targets in Northern Ireland. It is believed to have botched a bombing in Belfast in which one of its members was injured.
In Belfast, a pregnant Catholic mother and her two children had an almost miraculous escape when their home was riddled with gun fire. In Armagh, a Catholic man escaped with his life when a loyalist gunman's weapon jammed.
Amid all this, community sectarian tensions remain at a high pitch. Robert Ham ill, a Catholic man, was beaten to death in Portadown because he was a Catholic. "Die, you Fenian bastard, die," his attackers shouted as they danced on his body.
In Derry, a 21 year old Protestant, Ivan Heatherington, was set upon and badly beaten by a Catholic gang because he was a Protestant. Protestant families were intimidated in Dungannon.
AND all this in the space of a week. Indeed it didn't look good. And all in the lead up to the most volatile period of the marching season. Hardly surprising, therefore, that politicians, church and community leaders have been appealing for restraint, and warning that the alternative is a society potentially heading over the edge.
The main paramilitaries, the IRA, UVF and UDA, have shown some restraint, although there is suspicion that they are following a sinister ulterior agenda. Are they the puppet masters of the fringe paramilitaries, or are they losing control?
David Ervine of the Progressive Unionist Party and David Adams of the Ulster Democratic Party have insisted that the CLMC's ceasefire is still intact. That was the message for the new Northern Secretary Dr Mo Mowlam this week.
Nonetheless, in recent months the three paramilitary components of the CLMC the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando - have been blamed for violent operations, including attacks on republicans and Sinn Fein offices. Most seriously, the UDA was believed to have murdered a Catholic, John Slane, in Belfast.
Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein has accused the CLMC of following a policy of "no claim no blame". The Rev Roy Magee, who helped broker the loyalist ceasefire of October 1994 and who must ensure that his credibility is not tarnished, also insisted that the CLMC ceasefire still stood.
What is not in doubt is that there are great tensions within the main loyalist paramilitaries, with members of the UVF and UDA chomping at the bit, anxious to retaliate for IRA operations such as the murder of British soldier Stephen Restorick and other attacks.
The biggest threat to the authority of the CLMC is coming again from mid Ulster. RUC sources say the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) - outside the command of the CLMC and mainly comprised of dissident loyalists from the Portadown area - murdered Sean Brown from Bellaghy. They may also have been responsible for the murder attempt on a Catholic in Armagh on Tuesday.
The main loyalist figure in mid Ulster used to be Billy Wright. According to a senior RUC source, his authority was absolute. He exerted some control. "But since his imprisonment, loyalists in mid Ulster have been getting very restless and anxious to flex their muscles. There's plenty of them who want to get back to a full war footing," the RUC source said.
Police say it is uncertain whether there is a central command for the LVF or whether its members merely act as the sectarian whim takes them - with the potential to become a very dangerous and unpredictable force. Ultimately, it could undermine the cohesion of the CLMC and force it to abandon its ceasefire.
On the republican front the CAC is threatening to escalate its actions. It is understood to have Semtex and weapons plundered by dissidents from IRA arms dumps. While Republican Sinn Fein insists the CAC is not its military wing, gardai equally insist there is a connection.
The INLA, has upped the temperature by murdering RUC officer Darren Bradshaw. Sources close to the organisation warned of more to come. A minor republican player, it is sufficiently dangerous to inflame sectarian tensions and plunge the North back into a spiral of tit for tat violence.
Against all this, the IRA has been watching from the wings. In Northern Ireland it is understood to have been observing a deja eta ceasefire to allow the British general election and the local elections pass off without incidents for which it could be blamed.
It is also reported to be extending this de facto ceasefire for another month, to allow the general election in the Republic to proceed without a backdrop of IRA violence.
There are suspicions, however, that it may have given the INLA a "nod and a wink" permission to engage in violent actions. RUC sources say the INLA would not act without the nihil obstat of the IRA, although the INLA insists it is operating unilaterally.
It's a dangerous time for everybody. With the marching season upon us, people are getting more wound up. If the IRA is manipulating the INLA, and possibly the CAC, then it is playing a very high risk game. And there are plenty of loyalist paramilitaries ready to trade violent action for violent action, from whatever republican quarter it comes.
Paradoxically, as Martin McGuinness has pointed out, this is also a time of muted hope. Sinn Fein, according to Mr Gerry Adams, has received a high vote for peace. Tony Blair has indicated some willingness to push for an inclusive political peace process if Sinn Fein and the IRA reciprocate.
The question is, can the opportunities be seized or will the North descend into a summer of violence and death?
