The dog days of July and August are known in Bonn as the Sommerloch or summer hole, when Germany's leaders flee the city and political life stops for more than a month. But this year's summer has been different and politicians have been oddly reluctant to take a break.
The Chancellor, Dr Kohl, interrupted his holiday at the Austrian lakeside resort of Wolfgangsee three times - twice to visit flood victims in eastern Germany and once to attend an emergency debate on tax reform in Bonn. His deputy, Wolfgang Schaüble, offered to interrupt his holiday on the North Sea island of Sylt if the opposition wanted to talk about tax.
Almost every major political figure has made a high-profile holiday intervention in the debate about Germany's future, a sign that the political class is finding it difficult to switch off this year. "With more than four million people unemployed, we cannot afford a 14-month election campaign," said Mr Schaüble. But that is precisely what Germany is going to get between now and September 1998, when the next federal elections are due. The government faces a daunting task as it attempts to turn around Germany's struggling economy between now and then. The Bundesbank could deal these efforts a substantial blow on Thursday if it raises interest rates in the hope of stopping the slide in the value of the deutschmark on world money markets.
Dr Kohl was banking on a sweeping reform of Germany's tax system to boost competitiveness and ease the burden on the most heavily taxed voters in Europe. The opposition Social Democrats agree with the government on most of the main proposals, but, determined to pile on the agony for Dr Kohl, they used their majority in the upper house of parliament, the Bundesrat, to block the reform last month.
The Finance Minister, Theo Waigel, immediately accused the opposition of sacrificing Germany's national interest on the altar of electoral advantage. His opponents retort that the government should not be allowed to escape the blame for the country's economic woes and promise to introduce the necessary reforms as soon as they are in power themselves.
Opinion polls and political pundits agree that after the collapse of the tax reform Dr Kohl needs a miracle to win re-election next year. His grip on the Christian Democratic party machine remains formidable, but younger dissidents are becoming more relaxed about criticising the Chancellor in public.
Opposition leaders are convinced that after a decade and a half of centre-right government, Germany is ready for a change.
"We need a new political start in Germany and I am convinced that the weak opinion polls for the Christian Democrats reflect the fact that people see no chance of a new start with Kohl. They hold him and his policies responsible for post-war record levels of unemployment and public debt," said Social Democrat chairman, Oskar Lafontaine. Mr Lafontaine, who failed to oust Dr Kohl in 1990, is expected to step aside next year to allow his rival, Lower Saxony's Prime Minister, Gerhard Schroder, to lead the Social Democratic challenge. Like Tony Blair in Britain, Mr Schroder appeals to conservative voters who would not usually vote for a centreleft party, and he has won support from big business and within the media.
He favours postponing economic and monetary union rather than weakening the strict convergence criteria, and he shocked members of his own party recently by calling for a crackdown on foreigners who break the law in Germany.
But Mr Schroder has problems too, notably a vengeful estranged wife with a high media profile. Hiltrud Schroder threw her husband out of the family home last year when he admitted to an affair with a young journalist. With a divorce expected next month, Mrs Schroder has been complaining that her husband is an unprincipled opportunist in his political life and an unfeeling miser in private.
The German public usually ignores the private lives of its politicians, but the Schroders made their marriage part of a political campaign, becoming known as the "German Clintons". Mr Schroder, who has been married three times, also risks losing Catholic votes on account of his decision to live openly with his new partner.
These factors may not be enough to save Dr Kohl, however, and some of his allies believe the Government urgently needs a facelift. Mr Waigel called for a cabinet reshuffle, complaining that some ministers are simply trying to hang on until the election.
Dr Kohl let it be known that he has no plans for a reshuffle and, even if he wanted one, his room for manoeuvre is limited. Mr Waigel, for example, covets Mr Kinkel's job as Foreign Minister. But Mr Kinkel is a member of the Liberal Free Democrats (FDP) as was his predecessor, Hans-Dietrich Genscher, so that the party now believes it has established a right to the post. The FDP is the awkward squad within the ruling coalition, causing almost as many problems for Dr Kohl as the opposition does. Terrified of being wiped out at next year's election, the tiny party is desperate to establish its identity as the taxpayers' champion. This translates into blocking any attempt to bridge the gaping hole in the Government's budget by raising taxes.
ONE of Dr Kohl's stated reasons for seeking a fifth term as Chancellor is his determination to ensure that EMU is launched successfully and on time. Yet his rhetoric on Europe has cooled in recent months, and Germany disappointed some of its neighbours by blocking measures aimed at greater European integration at the Amsterdam summit in June.
The Chancellor surprised many observers last weekend when he added his voice to calls for a reduction in Germany's contribution to the EU budget.
The Italian Prime Minister, Romano Prodi, made an unusually sharp attack last week on German politicians who claim that EMU will fail if Italy is a founder member. He called on Bonn to regain its nerve and to stop blaming others for German political shortcomings.
"I don't like Germany when it is paralysed as it now is. I am afraid of a Germany that is afraid," he said.
Dr Kohl, who has defied predictions of political doom many times in the past, shows no sign of nervousness as he prepares for a yearlong election campaign. But as the German economy refuses to pick up and the voters remain grumpy, many of his colleagues are plainly terrified.
