Yeltsin isolated in a no-win situation

THE diverse groups who stood in the snow outside the grey building which once housed the grey men of Gosplan, the state agency…

THE diverse groups who stood in the snow outside the grey building which once housed the grey men of Gosplan, the state agency which planned the greyness of the former Soviet Union, appeared at first sight to be violently opposed to, each other.

They had one thing in common, however, and that was a fervent belief that the presidency of Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin should come to an abrupt end.

One group of right wingers and Communists chanted "Yeltsin enemy of the people" and an irrelevant "Jews get out", while another made up of democrats shouted anti communist slogans.

Inside the Duma, where the new parliament dominated by the Communist party was about to hold its first session, the political leaders were united in their attacks on the President. Almost all of them wanted him to go only the reasons for his replacement differed.

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On the democratic side of the fence, Mr Grigory Yavlinsky, leader of the largest pro reform party in the lower house issued a statement which left little doubt about his views on Mr Yeltsin.

"One more bloody tragedy has occurred during the criminal war in the North Caucasus unleashed by President Yeltsin and Dzhokhar Dudayev. We mourn the Dagestani civilians and Russian servicemen who were killed during these events

The Federal authorities have demonstrated the obvious they are incapable of running the country, Yeltsin's and Chernomyrdin's actions are as dangerous for the state as their periods of inactivity," thundered the statement from Mr

Yavlinsky.

Flushed by his election success, the leader of the Communist party was in a similar mood. Mr Gennady Zyuganov strode the lavishly appointed corridors of power, telling all who wished to listen that the events in the south heralded the political demise of the President.

"It would be better for both Boris Yeltsin and the country as a whole if he did not put forward his candidacy for the June elections. . .I think there is now nothing which can enhance his chances of being elected for a second term because his policy is completely bankrupt and has failed."

The President who was supposed to be the guarantor of the constitution could not guarantee, Mr Zyuganov said, "the first right of a human being, the right to life and security."

In short, politicians of all hues were smelling blood, and that blood belonged to Mr Yeltsin, whose job is up for grabs in June.

Just five minutes' walk away in the beleaguered Kremlin, the President's response to the predicament, in which he finds himself has been predictable. One by one the remaining reformers in his government are being sacked as sacrifices to the communist and nationalist opposition and replaced by old style apparatchiks.

Latest of the ever shortening hit list is Mr Anatoly Chubais, the man who presided over Russia's massive privatisation programme. This made him a bete noire not only to the communists who were ideologically opposed to his actions, but also to the nationalists, who believe that the economic changes weakened Russia's standing in the world.

Mr Chubais's resignation, signalled clearly by Prime Minister Chemomyrdin yesterday, will be the second major departure from government in a year which is just over two weeks old. Mr Andrei Kozyrev, the pro western foreign minister, was earlier replaced by former KGB official, Mr Yevgeny Primakov.

The sackings of reformers have not only failed to appease the President's opponents, but have also given them a taste for blood.

With the resignation of Mr Chubais, however, the list of sacked ministers from the reform camp will be almost complete. The left and right wing opposition will have got all the heads they wanted.

Mr Yeltsin now appears to find himself in a classic no win situation. ,His political options have been narrowed considerably and his military strategy has had disastrous results.

Should the Chechen rebels be wiped out, as Mr Yeltsin says he wants to do, a number of innocent lives appear likely to be lost in the fray. This would bring praise from the communists and nationalists and criticism from the democrats and human rights activists. Should the military operation collapse under the weight of its own incompetence, he will be attacked from all sides.

With his popularity rating standing at a mere 6 per cent before the latest fiasco, Mr Yeltsin's chances of being re elected appear slim indeed, barring a political miracle or the cancellation of the elections "in the interests of democracy".

Under the Russian system the leading two candidates after the first round of voting fight out a head to head battle in the second round. The "nightmare scenario" of a run off between candidates from the extreme wings of Russian politics now looks a distinct possibility. Reassessments are rapidly being made in the chancelleries of the west.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times