Stephen Collins: Government will test Independents' mettle

After more than nine weeks of political gamesmanship, interspersed with serious negotiations, it looks as if the experiment in “new politics” is finally going to produce a government next week.

There is a lot of cynicism inside and outside the political world about whether the experiment has any chance of success, and the fate of Irish Water is hardly designed to encourage optimism.

Nonetheless, there is no viable alternative at this stage. The choices made by the electorate decreed that the old way of politics is over, and politicians have to find a way of dealing with that.

In any case, there is a lot to be said for doing things differently. The old adversarial form of politics played a large part in the creation of the problems that beset the country for decades.

For instance, the water debacle stemmed directly from the old way of doing things. One of the reasons it is such a mess is that parties have reversed their positions on water purely for political advantage, with no regard to the long-term consequences for society.

Back in 2011, the Labour Party campaigned against the charges which had been agreed with the troika by the Fianna Fáil-led coalition. In 2016, Fianna Fáil campaigned against the charges which had been implemented by the Labour Party in office.

The result of the deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil is that the charging system has effectively been undermined and it is hard to see how it will be resurrected in the future.

The positive side of the deal is that Irish Water will survive as an entity, and that is critical for the future provision of water and waste services for an expanding population.

With policy differences now wrapped up, the focus will turn to the nuts and bolts of how the political side of the arrangement is going to work. This involved two intriguing questions.

The first is how a government 20 seats or so short of a majority in the Dáil is going to survive for any length of time.

The second is how Fianna Fáil is going to manage being the main opposition party while effectively keeping the government in place.

The first task now facing Fine Gael is to put a deal in place with enough Independents so that Enda Kenny can be elected taoiseach if Fianna Fáil abstains on the vote next week.

That will mean a number of Independents formally joining the government and being given cabinet and junior ministerial positions to cement their loyalty.

The government’s ability to last any length of time will depend on the capacity of the Independents to withstand the trials and tribulations of office.

There are some reservations in Fine Gael about the benefits of remaining in office at the mercy of Fianna Fáil, as Leo Varadkar’s comments on the Irish Water situation indicated. However, the view of most TDs in the party is that they should not spurn the chance of remaining in power no matter how tenuous that hold is.

Tenacity

For that the credit must go to Kenny, who will have confounded his many critics one more time if he manages to be elected taoiseach for a second term. Since the election setback he has displayed resilience and patience, and it looks as if that is going to be rewarded.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has also managed to bring his party where he wanted it to go. Some of his leading frontbenchers would have much preferred to go into coalition with Fine Gael rather than try the experiment of minority government, but Martin was unwavering in his rejection of the easy option.

Whether the minority government option will work is going to be the real test for him. It will take a new mindset on the part of ministers and opposition frontbench spokesman if it is to have any chance.

How ministers and senior civil servants come to terms with involving the main opposition party and Oireachtas committees in the process of formulating decisions will be critical in determining how long the government will last.

Sinn Féin and the hard left will make life as difficult as possible for the two bigger parties, but the Labour Party, the Greens and some Independents outside government can play a constructive role.

Strong speeches

Alan KellyBrendan Howlin

In the past week Labour demonstrated just how different it is from the Anti-Austerity Alliance and a variety of left-wing Independents whose support for the non-payment of charges reflects their destructive approach to good governance.

The Seanad elections have also given Labour a lifeline with the addition of five members to the parliamentary party, three of them strong contenders for Dáil seats next time around.

Some of those who have been writing Labour’s obituary in recent times did the same for Fine Gael in 2002 and Fianna Fáil in 2011, so it will be no surprise if Labour also confounds them.