A review of dealing with shocks to Irish energy supply in future has concluded a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility should be one of the options to be considered by Government.
The LNG solution is one of 10 options shortlisted as responses to shocks to Irish energy supply between now and 2030, caused by events such as extreme weather events, political instability, or disruption of gas supplies from the UK or Norway.
The use of LNG has been a contentious issue both within the Coalition, and between the Government and Opposition. A proposed permanent commercial LNG facility for the Shannon Estuary was strongly backed by local TDs from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but has been opposed by the Green Party and by most Opposition parties, on the basis of continued fossil-fuel dependency in addition to the likely use of fracked gas.
The 200-page review, carried out by the London-based Cepa economic consultants and published on Monday, makes no specific recommendation, rather setting out preferred options for the Government.
Notably, however, it doesn’t include a permanent and fixed, commercially operated LNG terminal in its shortlist of options. This seems to rule out facilities such as the commercial operation being planned for the Shannon Estuary.
In its reasoning, the review states that such a commercial operation would likely result in the importation of fracked gas which would be in contradiction of Government policy. It also pointed to higher emissions from LNG than from natural gas, and no guarantee the facility would hold sufficient stock in the event of a shock.
In contrast, it states that leasing, rather than owning, a floating LNG terminal located offshore would “enable security of supply benefits to be delivered without committing to a long-term dependence on gas while also reducing the risk of stranded assets”.
It added that a floating LNG terminal, operated as a backup facility, would limit the risk of importing fracked gas only to periods in which the backup facility was being utilised.
However, if that option were to be taken up by the Government, that would still leave open the possibility of some fracked gas being imported during the operation of the LNG terminal, a situation which could give rise to political tensions in Government.
A second gas option was also included on the shortlist. That was a land-based storage facility which would not be permanent but would be used only as a backup facility in the event of shock.
Its status as backup storage would mean “it would have a minimal impact on the future role of gas in the energy sector. Retaining gas in storage would provide a stronger guarantee of the availability of gas in the event of a security of supply shock.”
The report was commissioned before the Russian invasion of Ukraine last spring but its remit was extended to explore the impact of a cut-off by Russia of its gas supplies to Europe over a prolonged period.
It set out a number of “shock scenarios” including extreme weather events (including storms, prolonged poor conditions for wind energy and for solar power); political instability; as well as short and long disruptions of supply of natural gas from Britain.
While Ireland’s energy infrastructure, and its planned expansion into renewables, should make it robust enough to withstand most shocks by 2030, the review did identify several situations where new mitigation options would need to be explored.
Other possible mitigation options included on the shortlist were: additional electricity interconnection (including a second interconnector to France); more pumped hydro storage; a biomass plant; increased secondary fuel storage; indigenous renewable gas production and production of green hydrogen; and additional electricity storage batteries.
The review has been put out for public consultation until October. Once that process is completed, the Government is expected to decide on which of the options, if any, it will pursue to ensure security of supply until 2030.
