The country is split on whether Ireland should join Nato and most people are concerned the war in Ukraine will lead to food shortages, a new survey on attitudes to Irish neutrality shows.
Dublin-based behavioural science consultancy Behaviour Wise found in an online survey of 1,845 Irish adults polled in late June and early July that the country was more or less divided on Nato membership with 52 per cent in support of joining and 48 per cent opposed.
Behaviour Wise said it wanted to explore, from a behavioural science perspective, how narratives affected people’s thinking on defence policy and may influence their voting.
One third of the respondents to the survey, 614 people, were asked to read a paragraph about military conflict, including recent news about increased military spending and new defence measures by European countries in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Another third, some 614 people, were asked to read a paragraph about food insecurity, while the final third, some 617 people, were not asked to read anything.
Support for Nato membership was 49 per cent among the “control” group not asked to read anything, while it was 56 per cent in favour among those who read the military paragraph and 51 per cent in favour among those who read the food insecurity paragraph.
The overall 52 per cent in favour of Nato membership was based on the average across the 1,845 respondents and all three groups. *
Six in 10 people said Ireland remaining neutral was important to them but just 42 per cent said it would keep the country safe in the event of global war.
More people who support the Government parties — Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party — were open to ending neutrality, while supporters of Sinn Féin were divided on the issue.
“The country is split on this; that is really significant and shows it could be a divisive issue because people do care on both sides of the argument,” said co-author Claire Cogan.
The survey found support for increasing spending on military defence with just one in 10 suggesting that the current level of expenditure was too much.
Support for joining Nato was highest among people aged 65 and over, at 65 per cent, and among men, at 58 per cent.
Some 54 per cent of people supported joining a future EU army rather than Nato. Support for this stood at 67 per cent among people aged 65 and over and at 64 per cent among men and people aged between 55 and 64. It was backed by 62 per cent of people aged between 18 and 24.
Among those who read the military paragraph support for joining a future EU army was 60 per cent, while it was 51 per cent among those who were not asked to read anything.*
The research found a high level of anxiety about rising food prices and potential food shortages with nine in 10 people surveyed expressing worry about the rising cost of food.
A majority, some 57 per cent of people polled, believed Ireland should stockpile food to prepare for possible food shortages, compared with 22 per cent who believed it was not necessary.
Almost two thirds of people did not believe Ireland was safe from global food insecurity.
Eight out of 10 people were concerned that war in Ukraine would lead to food shortages and hunger in many and countries.
“People are very concerned about food security, at a very immediate level with the rising price of food, but it is also the scale of the worry,” said Cogan.
“It is impacting the vast majority of people because they are exposed to food prices very often. Every time they go into a shop, they can see an increase in prices. Then they are also concerned about the wider effects the war and conflict is having on food security globally.”
Almost 60 per cent said Ireland should continue to accept refugees fleeing war from Ukraine and elsewhere and a similar proportion agreed that the EU should ban Russian gas and oil imports, even if it meant higher energy prices in Ireland.
* The article was amended on Tuesday, October 18th, 2022 to include more detail of the research methodology and to provide additional information on its findings. The headline was also changed to more closely reflect the article’s opening line.
