The evolving information technologies are likely to re-focus some industries and realign property sectors, but should not have a negative impact on property demand, according to Pat Gunne, managing director of Gunne estate agency.
In a far-reaching examination of how information technology will influence the property market in the coming years, Mr Gunne said that while technological development could bring an end to some jobs, companies and industries, it also opened up many new opportunities. "I want you to think of property, not the way you see it today but the way we see it tomorrow," he said.
Could we underestimate the influence of technology, he asked. "Ask yourself which influences your lives more on a daily basis - the American government or Microsoft Corporation - and that will probably give you the answer," Mr Gunne told the recent Business and Finance Personal Finance conference in Dublin.
"If you also consider the fact that Microsoft spends more on research and development than the combined governments of England, Holland and Ireland, you will have an insight into the level of investment required."
In addressing the question of how new technology would impact on the property market it was necessary to consider the "bigger picture" and place Ireland in an international context. "If the Government provides an infrastructure which will be able to cope with the Ireland of tomorrow, if we continue to provide a sound education system and the world continues to grow in a sustained manner, we will continue to attract more people into the country. However, keeping ahead of technological advancement will be a key as it has proved to be the main impetus for our current levels of economic growth."
Mr Gunne detailed each of the key property sectors, describing how they might be affected by advanced IT. "The office as we know it today will change dramatically between now and 2010," he said. "A desk, albeit not your own desk, will be essential. However it will likely be a `hot desk' where you will literally plug in and plug out on a daily basis."
Technology advances in computer storage and retrieval will lead to a downsizing of office accommodation needs for many companies. Reductions that had taken place through better utilisation of office accommodation during the 1980s would be further reduced as workers used IT to work from home, free from the confines of the office.
The retail sector "is an industry that is under serious threat from the PC", said Mr Gunne. Traditional shopping may give way to e-commerce and shopping online. "Shopping and retailing, if it is to maintain its existing status, and indeed, profit margins, will have to become much more enjoyable and much more of a social event if it is to last."
Shopping would also become increasingly integrated with leisure facilities, with the two providing high entertainment content. This meant that leisure was likely to become a major growth area for the future as retail and leisure activities merged.
The industrial sector, he suggested, presented a mixed picture. Key issues would be transport, logistics and the movement of goods and services. Manufacturing would not end, but it would move from being labour intensive to being a "robotics industry".
"Industry needs property to survive," he said, but the old industrial estates would continue to give way to high quality business parks which included industrial and office space.
ONE thing that would not change was that location would remain king, Mr Gunne said. And the key to location was now transport.
The emerging technological companies would make tenant assessment more difficult. He knew of two landlords who four years ago refused space to Iona Technologies because of doubts over its future. How did those landlords feel now, he asked.
"The way forward, in our view, is to `partner' with your tenants," he said. It might also be advisable to mix tenancies, which could be good for rental growth and could reduce risk exposure.
