With the rise in motor tax on high-emissions vehicles, drivers were expected to plump for smaller, more efficient cars. But sales figures show the opposite, writes NEIL BRISCOE
THERE IS A theory that we’re all going to start buying smaller, more expensive cars. The idea is that, with ever tightening legislation on carbon emissions, and oil prices on a constant stairway to heaven, we’re all going to start trading in our SUVs, MPVs and even big saloons and estates in favour of smaller, but more luxurious and sophisticated, cars. Chrysler’s new Ypsilon is the perfect example of this supposed trend. It takes the badge, leather seats and high-end electronics that you’d expect of a big Chrysler, and scrunches them up into a car not much bigger than the Fiat 500 it shares DNA with. Perfect for the waiting hordes of car-buying downsizers.
Except there’s a problem. These buyers simply don’t exist. At least not yet, not here and not in any great numbers.
Looking at the car sales numbers for Ireland, and comparing the last year before the recession truly started to bite (2008) with this year so far, and you’ll find one big change; the swing to becoming a 70 per cent diesel market, a reversal of the old petrol-diesel split.
You would also expect to see the virtual death of the 4x4 and SUV segment, and that’s certainly the case at the top end, but what’s known as the SUV Standard (H1) market has dropped, but only by about a third, far less than the rate of decline for the market as a whole. To be more precise, while the total year-to-date car market is 42 per cent lower than it was in 2008, the SUV segment is down by a comparatively smaller 28 per cent. We still love our 4x4s then – they’ve just become smarter, allowing us to downsize our emissions and consumption without actually buying a smaller car.
Much of this stability (if a 28 per cent drop can be called stability, and in this context, it probably can) can be ascribed to one car; the Nissan Qashqai. An utterly roaring success ever since it was launched, the Qashqai cleverly provided buyers with an aspirational dose of 4x4 style and utility while actually being very close to, say, a Ford Focus in terms of overall size, consumption and emissions.
Likewise, you would expect, if all the crystal-ball gazers are correct, to see buyers deserting the likes of large family saloons and even compact family hatches and fleeing towards the likes of the Ford Fiesta, Toyota Yaris and Volkswagen Polo, all of which have the space and sophistication to shame their larger brethren.
Nope, we’re not doing that either. In fact, we’re going the other way entirely. A decade ago, when we bought more new cars than at any other time in Irish history, it was that small family car market that ruled.
We bought Fiestas, Polos and Yarises by the bushel. But now, not only have the likes of the (larger) Focus, Golf and Corolla vanquished the smaller cars, the even bigger Avensis saloon is outselling all but the mighty Focus and Golf.
And there’s more. The switch to CO2-based tax in 2008 finally freed up the Irish car buyer from their traditional focus on engine cubic capacity. In doing so, and in switching to diesel power, we’ve actually upped our engine size. In 2008, the bestselling Ford Focus had a 1.4-litre petrol engine. This year, it’s got a 1.6-litre diesel. The most popular Avensis has moved from a 1.6-litre petrol to a 2.0-litre diesel – with lower emissions, but more power.
We’re not downsizing at all. We’re super-sizing. With fries.
Why? Simple really; technology. A decade, even half a decade ago, bigger cars simply couldn’t match smaller cars for fuel and emissions efficiency. Now, with new tech diesel engines and smarter electronics and weight reductions, a Mercedes-Benz E-Class or BMW 5 Series, with a diesel engine, can be taxed for the same €156 a year as a humble Ford Fiesta 1.25 petrol.
There’s also the conspiracy-theory answer. Car makers are just expanding their small car fleets to lower their corporate CO2 figures to avoid fines. They actually want you to buy the larger cars, which have much higher profit margins.
It’s a trend that’s becoming even more pronounced elsewhere. In the UK, larger cars like the E-Class, Qashqai and Opel (Vauxhall) Insignia have broken into the top 10 sales chart, ousting smaller, supposedly more efficient and economical models.
American buyers, who, ever since the recession and higher oil prices hit, have been predicted to begin a major down-sizing trend (to the undisguised glee of European car makers), aren’t offering the downsize predictors any solace. In a survey conducted this year by the Consumer Reports National Research Centre, 56 per cent of American car buyers expected to stick with the same size when they go for a new car.
So, forget downsizing, forget new market niches, forget squashing your family into smaller cars. The modern Irish (and European, and American) car buyer still wants pretty much the same car they wanted a decade ago. In our case, that’s (on average) a Ford Focus, in silver or black, please.
