From the good times to the changing times - Patrick Logue looks at thefuture of Ireland's road-building programme
There was a time not so long ago when the we looked forward to Budget day. For many years it was simply a question of how much, how soon, and will the new car be green or metallic blue, alloys or CD player - or alloys and CD player. All has changed, changed utterly.
Charlie McCreevy's swingeing spending cutbacks announced in his Book of Estimates earlier this month put the Celtic whatchamacallit out of its misery once and for all, meaning motorists - forever struggling with high petrol prices and insurance premiums - are in for even more pain.
The Government's ambitious plans to connect Dublin, using motorway or high-quality dual carriageway, to Cork, Limerick, Galway, Waterford and the Border north of Dundalk, have been thrown into further disarray as McCreevy and his colleagues scramble to balance the books on December 4th.
The funding crisis follows hold-ups caused by restrictions on work during the foot-and-mouth crisis and the compensation deal for farmers last year.
The upshot is that the National Development Plan (NDP) roads programme which was due to complete the five "inter-urban" projects by 2006 may now not be finished until late 2007 or 2008.
One cannot help surmising that with Government predictions of several years of financial gloom, this date may be somewhat mobile.
Michael Egan of the National Roads Authority (NRA), which is responsible for executing the Government's NDP roads strategy, is pessimistic. The Department of Transport's allocation of just over €1 billion to the NRA falls short of what is needed to complete the NDP roads programme on time.
This means - like 2002 - no new roads projects will begin next year. "We are still finalising a programme for next year in light of the allocation of finance which will be determined on budget day," Egan says.
Some 22 road projects have been approved and await finance, a commodity which is in short supply. "In four of these, however, the tender process is at an advanced stage," Egan adds. These are the Kinnegad, Kilbeggan Kilcock motorway in the midlands, the Monasterevin bypass, the Waterford City bypass, and the Dundalk western bypass.
Indeed it is not all bad news. Money has been pumped into the NDP roads project over the last three years, meaning route selection for the five "inter-urban" routes is complete. For some drivers the roads will move from concept to reality.
Drivers heading north out of Dublin can look forward to motorway all the way from Santry to the southern tip of Dundalk in Co Louth by July of next year.
The Drogheda bypass section of this road will be finished in April.
The Youghal bypass in Co Cork will be finished in March, the Glen o' the Downs dual carriageway in Co Wicklow will be open to motorists in July, while sections of the N18 in and the N19 Shannon access route in Co Clare will be opened in September.
The N8 Watergrasshill road in Co Cork will be finished in December next year, and the N5 Strokestown to Longford road will be completed in November 2003.
Furthermore, the Celbridge interchange on the N4 will be finished in January and the M50/N11 Wyattville interchange will be ready for driving on in September.
So despite the cutbacks and belt-tightening, motorists will begin reaping the benefits of what the Government has sewn in boom times. The NDP roads programme will have cost an absolute minimum of €15.8 billion when finished; €2.6 billion has been spent since 1999.
Money down the drain says the Campaign for Sensible Transport (CaST), an umbrella group formed by 20 action groups opposing the NDP's planned motorways around the State.
By abandoning its motorway building "frenzy", concentrating on upgrading existing routes and bypassing some of the worst traffic blackspots, the Government, CaST believes, can realise an immediate capital saving of €3 billion.
CaST spokesman Gary Fitzgerald believes it will take well over a decade to finish the roads projects envisaged under the NDP, if next year's funding level remains.
"We should plan to build roads we can actually build and give motorists real road improvements now," says Fitzgerald. "Traffic blackspots should be prioritised ahead of grandiose motorway schemes. There is no justification for a lot of planned motorways."
"There is really only one major urban centre in Ireland by European standards," Fitzgerald adds.
Because of Ireland's relatively small population many motorways are simply a waste of taxpayers' money and adopting CaST's plans would also reduce the need for tolling, he believes.
In a report CaST published in May of this year the group says on top of saving €3 billion immediately, a further €14 billion in toll charges can be saved by the taxpayer over the next 30 years, an equivalent of €1.3 million a day.
The group suggests the NRA should revert to plans set out in its National Road Needs Study, finished in 1998, which suggested some roads should be simply upgraded instead of building brand-new motorways.
The Green Party agrees that motorway building should be dropped, and the money saved should be pumped into a "radical new public transport system".
Earlier this month the party launched its national spatial plan, saying new railways, instead of motorways, would encourage development outside Dublin.
The party's spokesman on transport, Eamonn Ryan, says it is not too late to row-back on the NRA's motorway programme. "We would revert to the recommeded policy in the NRA's own Roads Needs Study and upgrade the existing National Primary roads but we should then use the huge savings to fund new public transport services.
"The alternative solution to tackling gridlock in Irish cities and towns will be more billions spent on ring roads and flyovers which will inevitably become clogged with the extra traffic that new roads attract," Ryan adds.
But Egan insists that everything in the National Roads Needs report still applies to 50 national primary and secondary routes, and that motorways or high-quality dual carriageways were the best option for the five inter-urban routes because of the large volume of traffic.
The NRA deems it necessary to build a new motorway or dual-carriageway quality road where volume is greater than 7,700 vehicles a day. This ensures a "high level of service objective", or in plain language drivers will be able to maintain average speeds of 96 km/h.
"The five inter-urban routes planned have major significance to regional access and development. Where there are greater volumes it is appropriate to go for a higher level of service," Egan says.
"There is nothing wrong with setting our sights a little higher.
"The Needs study did not reflect the state of play when NDP was published in 1999 when traffic volumes had increased significantly."
Egan says the CaST approach is too simplistic and it simply would not work. "We would cause expensive traffic congestion on the key transport arteries over a good number of years. It's a nightmare scenario, the system would virtually collapse."
But the Greens say the planned motorways will draw life to the centre rather than to the periphery. Two thirds of the country will see the Liffey Valley Shopping centre as their local shop at the expense of local shops in smaller towns and villages, the party believes.
It will be at least six years before we find out who is correct.