A preview of this year's Tokyo Motor Show (its 37th!) by Andrew Hamilton
It's all change and no change at the 37th Tokyo motor show opening today at the Makuhari Messe, on the seaside outskirts of Japan's sprawling 20 million-plus capital. This automotive Asian flagship exhibition is hosting around 270 car, motorcycle and parts manufacturers from 14 countries, almost 500 overseas journalists and, of course, the real people who keep any motor show alive and vibrant, motorists who buy and change their cars. In Japan and Tokyo, they certainly aren't an endangered species for the country and the capital has some of the world's worst traffic jams.
Around one million Japanese will be heading to the Makuhari Messe in the coming weeks. The theme of this year's show is "The Challenge: Driving towards a better future". The challenge of driving to that future at Makuhari is just not on: the organisers, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association say sternly to leave the car at home.
A quarter of a century ago Japanese marques were making their presence felt around Europe and in Ireland, mostly because of exceptional reliability and an enhanced specification, like a push-button radio as standard. But the Tokyo show then was far from being a window to their world.There were only a handful of foreign visitors and no information or printed material was in English.
You left as you arrived, probably confused or ignorant about whatever developments were taking place. It's a moot point indeed if anything much was happening for it was a time when the Japanese emulated and copied the best - and worst - of automotive Europe and America.
In the early 21st century, the change has been profound and Japanese manufacturers such as Toyota and Honda lead in innovation offensives like hybrid technology. Significantly, however, they are the only full independent of Japan's seven globally active car manufacturers. Nissan and Mitsubishi are now controlled by Renault and Daimler Chrysler, Suzuki and Subaru have alliances with General Motors, and Mazda is part of the Ford empire.
Against that, though, there has been the spectacular rise of Toyota, poised to become the world's largest vehicle manufacturer. Toyota is claiming lead position in actual car manufacturing. With 6.2 million cars and light trucks sold last year, it lags General Motors by two million. The Japanese titan is just 700,000 units behind the number two world manufacturer, Ford.
That gap could be bridged in two years. Already Toyota has displaced Chrysler as one of the Big Three in the US.
With a market capitalisation of $110 billion, Toyota is valued at more than GM, Ford and Daimler Chrysler combined. In the fiscal year ended March 31st, its profit, a record $11.68 billion, exceeded the combined earnings of every other Japanese auto manufacturer. Like its profit, it leaps ahead in market share and on the Japanese domestic scene accounts for 42 per cent of all cars sold, far ahead of rivals like Nissan with 18 per cent, Honda 15 per cent and Mazda, 6 per cent.
Over a dozen foreign brands sell in Japan but they account for less than 5 per cent of the 4.5 million cars sold annually. They are mostly luxury or prestige brands like BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz. Nevertheless it has motivated Toyota to introduce its Lexus luxury marque to its home market. Until now, Lexus vehicles have been badged simply as Toyota.
At the other end of the scale, you can't get away from Japan's ubiquitous micro cars, known here as K cars. They used to have tiny engines, usually around 360 cc, but now their engine size is almost twice as big. Toyota chief engineer Suguya Fukusato explains why: "Japanese people spend more and more time in their cars because of traffic. They need more comforts like good audio systems and air conditioning so it's a matter of putting more power in to cope with extra demand.
Suzuki is putting on the biggest spread of baby or K cars at the show, not surprisingly because it is the leader of the segment. Their popularity is not just about saving fuel. You can't own a car in this tightly compressed country without having an off-street or off-road parking space, and many houses only have minimal space.
Japan's car wheels are still solely gasoline-powered: diesel cars are practically non-existent. Toyota and Honda are charging ahead with gasoline-hybrid cars and Toyota is planning to be represented with the technology in practically every segment of the market. Its second generation Prius, which went on sale in Japan only last month, has notched up 30,000 orders.
Toyota, and Honda too, don't see eye-to-eye with General Motors in its espousal of the fuel cell. Briefing journalists just before the show, Toyota's senior managing director Takeshi Uchiyamada was adamant that hybrid technologies were not just a stepping stone to the age of fuel cell vehicles. It's a bright vision with the Japanese and all the rest of us as well, sitting in far healthier traffic jams!!