Wine consumption in Ireland will continue to increase over the next 20 years, even if overall alcohol consumption drops. So what shall we drink? Chinese Chardonnay? West Cork Cabernet? Mary Dowey looks ahead
Robert Parker, the all-powerful American wine critic, recently announced his predictions for the next 10 years in the US magazine Food & Wine. Top Bordeaux will cost $10,000 a case. Screwcaps will outnumber corks. Spain will overtake France. Argentine Malbec will overtake Australian Chardonnay. And oaky wines (for which RP has had a penchant) will be replaced by lighter, livelier styles.
Parker had it easy. It's just about possible to peer 10 years into the future. But 20 years? The picture is cloudier than Cloudy Bay. Change in the wine world is fast. Two decades ago we had barely even got our tongues around Australian Chardonnay. Merlot mania and the notion that red wine is healthy were still a long way off.
What forces will shape our wine-drinking habits by 2025 - that's if abstinence doesn't take hold (a dreary fate I will fight daily with a glass in my hand)? Here are a few thoughts, both from me and from leading winemakers around the world.
DRINKING MORE?
Even though we will become more conscious of the need to adhere to "safe drinking" limits for health and social reasons, wine consumption in Ireland will continue to increase - at least for a while - probably levelling off when we reach 20-25 litres per capita per year. (The average is just under 16 litres now.) Consumption in the US and Asia will also rise. But while they await growth in markets like these, some producer countries will still have more wine on their hands than they can sell.
MORE THAN A DRINK
Wine will be seen less as an alcoholic beverage and more as the key to a desirable lifestyle. Long dinners with civilised conversation, trips to ravishing vineyard regions, curiosity about historic estates and passionate producers . . . these are the things that will drive wine forward. Liver permitting, I look forward to celebrating that.
FASHION UPHEAVALS
We forget that wine has always been affected by fashion: that's why the best German Rieslings were more highly-prized than top Burgundy a century or so ago, and why there was a prolonged craze for sweet champagne. Next time the pendulum swings, will easy, fruity New World wines will be replaced by Europe's more savoury styles?
NO PARKER, NO ROLLAND
Parker power is waning in the US, it seems - and not before time. It may be rather soon to say RIP, RP, but after over 20 years of tasting and accurately remembering up to 200 wines a day, Robert Parker must be ready for a rest. Who will replace him? Keep an eye on US wine writer Steve Tanzer.
Parker's pal, Michel Rolland, the influential wine consultant who jets around the world advising over 100 clients, may not be flavour of the month much longer either. So, who's in the wings? In Bordeaux, young Stéphane Derenoncourt is already picking up business that Rolland has lost.
STRONG CHINA
Asia will be the major market for wine, with China at its centre. Besides being a key importer, China will also be a significant producer, with many vineyards recently planted and more planned as sake production declines. We can expect to see Chinese wines here, too.
CLEVER NEW CLOSURE
By 2025, something more reliable than corks and much more attractive than screwcaps will banish cork taint. Please, please!
GLOBAL WARMING
The south of England's climate has changed so much in recent years that it is now excellent for the production of top-notch sparkling wine - and leading champagne houses are sniffing out land deals there. Will the same thing happen in Ireland? Might we see Appellation Sugar Loaf on labels, or Wine of Origin West Cork?
BRAZIL, URUGUAY, GEORGIA
And Romania, at last perhaps? In the next 20 years, we'll see heaps of wines in the Irish market from producer countries barely or poorly represented here now. South America has unrealised potential. So has the Caucasian republic of Georgia, where wine was first made about 5,000 years ago.
NO COMPETITIONS?
I wish. Maybe enough people will have the wit to blow the whistle on these flawed and futile exercises. Any half-decent wine needs to be judged over an hour or two, as its flavours slowly unfurl. It's an insult to do it in a minute-and-a-half, as competition routine requires - and a swizz.
ORGANIC GROWTH
As consumers worry more about the purity of their food and drink, wine producers will embrace organic or biodynamic methods. And wine drinkers will learn to distinguish between "true" aromas and the kind that announce a chemistry lab.
WHAT THE EXPERTS THINK
"The 2025 GPs and cardiologists will advise patients to eat well, exercise and drink one or two glasses of wine per day. Wines will be specially graded as to their health benefits and their 'health scores' will be promoted on back labels." Laura Catena, Bodega Catena Zapata, Argentina, and assistant professor of medicine at University of California
"Bordeaux's superiority complex will be completely redundant.
A new, more representative global winemaking hierarchy will be established, including serious players from Greenland (greenhouse propagation), Russia and China where entire regions will be equipped with desert cooling devices." Mike Ratcliffe, Warwick Estate, South Africa
"Good small and medium-sized producers everywhere will continue to do well because connoisseurs will support them. The rest will be swallowed up by big-volume brands." Hubert de Billy, Champagne Pol Roger
"The smell and taste preferences of consumers will be used to build flavour profiles. Successful wines will be developed to match these." Brent Marris, Wither Hills, New Zealand
"New brands will surface, especially from the Old World. The rationalisation efforts undertaken today will be complete and the entire trade will be a lot healthier. Massive multinationals, too heavy and sluggish to run in this competitive, fast-moving world, will be broken up." Charles Sichel, Château Palmer, Bordeaux
"There will be a far greater understanding of the size of Australia and the range of styles that we can produce from the same grape variety. Heathcote will be the star area for Shiraz." Bruce Tyrrell, Tyrrells Wines, Australia
"The New World will continue to be very dynamic in the medium to high end of the wine trade. This will help Old World wine countries with a warm climate and the same ripe wine character, such as Spain, which still has a lot to say." Alvaro Palacios, Alvaro Palacios Wines, Spain