There are worse repercussions of the fuel crisis, undoubtedly. Still, the itchy-footed among us will find it an unhappy coincidence that energy prices are rising just as we thought we could finally dust off the suitcase we bought in February 2019, and jet off on a normal(ish) summer holiday.
Today fuel accounts for around 30 per cent of a plane ticket cost, so in the weeks, months and potentially years ahead that figure – and the resulting ticket price – is set to increase. The unknown factor is by how much.
Dermott Jewell, policy advisor to the Consumers’ Association of Ireland (CAI), says: “It’s hard to predict because while we’re seeing rising fuel prices, at the same time airlines are trying to claw back some business. There are too many and ever-changing factors coming into play to know for sure.”
Holiday planning and bargain hunting is, to this wanderlusting reporter at least, a distinct pleasure of travel. When else do you get to try out numerous destinations, hotels and activities out for size in your head, and piece them together like an imaginary jigsaw of fun?
It all means that the pressure is on to find flights as cheaply as possible. Yet it's already proving trickier than it once was as airlines continue to game their prices to make them seem as attractive as possible on price comparison sites like Skyscanner and Google Flights.
We might know from painful experience that bags and choosing seats costs extra, so the final fare is rarely the same as the first tempting price we see on comparison sites. Yet still our lizard brain is drawn in to what might appear like the cheapest booking.
“Some of the frustration is that you have to get through a good degree of the process before you decide if it’s worth it, and you have to start the process all over again if you really want to compare like for like,” says Jewell. “It’s time-consuming, and that’s what gets a lot of people – they end up just buying it and moving on.
“There is more regulation coming through at the EU level around what’s put forward on a digital platform, and how it must inform and advise the consumer. But when it comes to prices, there’s no control on that.”
Comparison sites
Powered by solid data and complex algorithms, many flight comparison sites can indicate whether our prospective flights are cheap, as expected, or pricey. Kayak is particularly handy for this – their data scientists predict whether to expect a price drop, and recommend whether you should hold off or buy now.
Other research shows that booking flights at the weekend – especially on a Sunday – can mean cheaper fares, and that flight prices are often at their highest four to six weeks ahead of travel.
But peak travel is a law unto itself says Mark Murphy, founder of irishflights.ie, which rounds up cheaper than average flight and holiday deals.
“For school holidays you’d want to book it five or six months in advance. Price drops only really happen for less popular routes or off-peak flights,” he says. “For example, I went to visit my brother in Brooklyn in January and I got the flights for €208 return whereas they’d usually be €300 at that time of year. It’s because not many people wanted to go to New York at that time, I booked early, and I didn’t take much luggage with me.”
Those constrained by school holidays might save some funds by checking prices from Belfast airports as school dates in Northern Ireland may be different.
“A few weeks ago I found flights from Belfast to Majorca for £34, which is much lower than usual, and someone messaged me delighted because it was during the school holidays in the Republic,” explains Murphy. “But generally flying from Belfast is more expensive because of the extra taxes.”
A pro at spotting low-cost flights, he has noticed that the hallowed error price – when companies mistakenly sell a flight or holiday very cheaply – happens only once or twice a year in Ireland.
The more reliable bargains are for those who can stay flexible on their dates or destination. That includes thinking carefully to find the most cost-effective way to travel. “So if your heart is set on Vienna, for example, you could also fly into Budapest if it’s cheaper and take the hour-long train,” Murphy says.
Transparency
Still, there’s only so many tips and tricks available, and ultimately we’re at the behest of airlines to pass on the fuel rise appropriately but not extortionately.
Jewell says: “Prices need to be put in place with transparency. We need to know if we’re taking a hit because fuel or staff prices have increased, are we subsiding lost profits in the past few years?”
There is one other price that you might like to bear in mind: the ecological cost. A recent UK study recommended six lifestyle changes that could make a real difference to our personal carbon emissions. One of these was to take no more than one short-haul flight every three years and one long-haul flight every eight years. You may be due one of those in 2022, or you could consider that the cheapest flight of all is the one you don’t buy.
