As the general election moves ever closer, backroom teams are fine-tuning their parties’ manifestos.
Each will offer what the party hopes will be a winning formula of problem-solving ideas for voters’ everyday lives, packaged with a delicate balance of enough ambition to standout but not so much that achievability becomes a weak flank.
These pledges will be the battleground on which the election is fought, at least initially. However, as Pat Leahy notes this weekend, it is very likely that many parties will also seek to largely avoid some pressing yet intractable issues.
Chief among these is climate change. As Leahy writes, the annual review of the Climate Change Advisory Council says that progress in cutting carbon emissions – while improved – will not be sufficient to meet reduction targets by 2030.
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Does this matter? Well, whichever combination of parties forms the next Government need to think about it as a current budgetary problem, as well as future climate problems.
The climate council calculates that Ireland could face fines of more than €8 billion if the present trajectory is maintained.
To put that sum in context, the overall 2025 budget package of spending increases and tax cuts announced earlier this month was €8.3 billion.
So imagine a future only a few short years from now when equivalent sums are being surrendered in fines, rather than on tax cuts and cost of living supports. The cost of inaction writ large.
As Leahy writes, that would be “fiscally disastrous for the next government, which would be faced with spending money on paying the fines rather than improving services, building infrastructure or reducing taxes”.
Why are parties unlikely to major on climate in the election? Each party can answer that for themselves but – to date – climate measures which seek significant, short-term, changes in consumer behaviour, especially around transport, or business, have foundered. Persuading people and businesses to change requires a combination of education, incentives and in some cases viable alternatives.
To pick but one example, the ambition for one million electric vehicles by 2030. Barring miracles this looks unachievable, in part as driver confidence in an EV future has been undermined by the inability of the Government to quickly deliver a high-capacity nationwide charging network of a scale and capacity that removes range anxiety.
To climate change, Leahy also adds immigration and it is understandable that people are nervous debating it. But sticking our heads in the sand is not a policy.
“Immigration is roiling politics all over Europe, fuelling the rise of far-right parties like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany and the Freedom Party in Austria” and as Leahy writes “EU leaders are being driven to harden their stance on migration by their own voters.”
In Ireland the immigration debate centres largely on challenges of accommodating people who come here seeking asylum or international protection, but this is just a subset. “We need an immigration and asylum policy that is humane, credible, enjoys public support and keeps Ireland open to the world in a sustainable way.”
Leahy also highlights Ireland’s economic model as a subject that is unlikely to receive significant debate during the election. The snowballing performance of the Irish economy over the past decade is remarkable yet vulnerable. The extended run of bumper corporation tax revenues cannot be taken for granted.
This issue touches on another, our ability to provide the resources and infrastructure to allow the economy to develop. The Irish Times is looking to assemble a reader panel of voters to discuss this election and a recurring frustration mentioned by them is the State’s “inability to get things done”, relatively quickly and on budget.
Multinationals are crying out for investment in infrastructure, especially energy and water. The costs of doing business here are rising and the next administration needs to get a handle on this.
As Leahy observes: “Nothing is more important for our society than maintaining the prosperity which provides the resources for governments to redistribute to make that society better. It should be the first priority in this and every election.”
Five Key Reads
- Foiling the gangland feud leaders: Although so much has been written about Christy Kinahan snr for two decades now, few people in Ireland have ever heard his voice. Recent recordings of the global cartel founder heard by The Irish Times make for fascinating listening, writes Conor Lally.
- US Election: Why I am voting for Donald Trump: Dale Seaquist (92) stands at the apple counter in the family market and gift store chopping tasters for the customers. He has remarkable vitality, in keeping with the theme of the upper reaches of Door County, which is faintly unreal: even the fresh air seems infused with cinnamon and ruddy good health. “An apple a day keeps the doctor away,” he says when asked the secret. “And an onion a day keeps everyone away,” writes Keith Duggan.
- Connacht Rugby on the rise: After years as the underdogs, Connacht are starting to bare their teeth. The have reinvented themselves on the pitch with their entertaining brand of rugby and are about to do likewise off the pitch too. They are one of Irish rugby’s ‘feelgood’ stories, writes Gerry Thornley.
- ‘I won’t be able to run any more’: “I’m passionate about marathons,” says Alan Jose de Lima (35) as he holds tightly the medals he has collected from the races he has run. Now he fears he will never race again after being attacked and badly beaten while working as a food delivery rider in Dublin. “I’ve always liked running. And now I won’t be able to any more because I have a metal plate in my knee, a metal plate in my tibia. I can’t do the sports I like any more ... I told the doctor I was a runner, he said: Now you won’t be able to run any more.”
- Why you should be sceptical about election promises: In his Smart Money column this week Cliff Taylor looks at the economic promises that are likely to be made by the political parties during the general election campaign and why these promises should be met with a sceptical eye.
- I’m a full-time carer for my mother and disabled brother. Am I entitled to any State support?: Q: Currently I’m caring full-time for my elderly mother and adult brother with a severe mental disability. I’m not in receipt of any income support and am reliant on mother’s income to survive as I am not in a position to work. Does the budget give any assistance to people in such a situation?
Elsewhere, this weekend thousands are taking part in and cheering on the runners in the Dublin Marathon this weekend. Sonia O’Sullivan writes that a home victory would be worth so much more to the Dublin Marathon than course records.
In this week’s On the Money newsletter Dominic Coyle looks at the factors to consider when buying a car: are you better opting for new or used? Sign up here to receive the newsletter straight to your inbox every Friday.
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