The first full week of the general election campaign flew by in a blizzard of manifestos, promises and policy announcements. At times it was difficult to discern an overall narrative, although one recurring theme was the sniping between the two main parties of the current Government.
Despite having co-existed relatively amicably for the last 4½ years, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil showed considerable enthusiasm for the fight, which, if anything, escalated as the week wore on. That is probably only natural; in many constituencies across the country they are chasing the same voters. But given the strong odds on them returning to power together after the election, they may need to be careful the aggression doesn’t boil over too much. Sceptics, meanwhile, point to how their rivalry has dominated the agenda, depriving the other parties of the oxygen of publicity.
In truth, the electorate as a whole – as opposed to the minority who are deeply engaged with politics – will only be starting to think seriously about their vote from this weekend on. Data from the last election showed that a very high percentage of them made up their minds in the closing days of the campaign. So there’s a lot to play for.
The first Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll of the campaign, published on Friday, suggests there have been no dramatic shifts in the public mood over the course of the last two months. Simon Harris and his party saw a marginal drop, but the main movers were Independents, who saw their support rise by 4 per cent. Ipsos B&A’s Damian Loscher noted that “Sinn Féin’s decline may be bottoming out, having fallen six points, five points, three points and one point in the last four polls”.
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On Saturday, when we published more results from the poll, Political Editor Pat Leahy pointed to the impact of recent events across the Atlantic. “More than half of all voters (56 per cent) say they are now more worried about the future as a result of Trump’s election,” he wrote. “And that in turn is affecting their attitude towards change.”
Asked about their preference for the next government, voters plumped for a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil combination ahead of anything else. “People are getting cautious,” Pat observed. “The ‘let’s just take it easy and not do anything rash’ lobby is growing.”
You might not have known that from the number of expensive promises made by all parties over the course of this first week. With the main manifestos now published, the next seven days should see a more serious and pointed debate about planning effectively for the years ahead. You can keep yourself fully informed on these developments and more with rolling live coverage, podcasts, analysis and insights from our team at irishtimes.com.
Ruadhán Mac Cormaic
Editor
Five Key Reads
- The Irish Times has brought together a panel of readers, from a cross-section of age groups and backgrounds from around the State to discuss the general election campaign. They have a variety of political viewpoints and perspectives, and all say they are certain to vote on November 29th. Learn more about the panel, and read what they make of the early stages of the campaign.
- Fine Gael was forced to break with Michael O’Leary after the Ryanair chief executive disparaged teachers at a campaign event for party candidate Peter Burke. He wouldn’t generally employ teachers to “go out and get things done”, O’Leary said, to the amusement of the Fine Gael attendees. In his weekend column, Mark O’Connell writes that his children’s primary school operates a lot more efficiently than Ryanair.
- If you want to know what’s going to happen in Election 2024, these four bellwether constituencies tell the story.
- The Church of Scientology in Ireland has recruited hundreds of asylum seekers to carry out free labour on its behalf, leading to accusations of exploitation. Sorcha Pollak and Conor Gallagher have the story.
- As his blockbuster Gladiator II hits the big screen, the former Kildare minor Paul Mescal spoke to Tara Brady about his start in acting, working with fellow Irish actors and his plans for the future.
Speaking of sporting endeavours, we have all the reaction to Ireland’s narrow victory over Argentina on Friday night. John O’Sullivan goes through five things we learned from the game. Keith Duggan was in Texas to see Katie Taylor retain her titles in a brutal bout with Amanda Serrano, as well the parody contest between Mike Tyson and Jake Paul that followed it. This evening, the Republic of Ireland soccer team face a daunting task at Wembley but Kevin Kilbane sees some green shoots for Heimir Hallgrímsson’s side.
In this week’s On the Money newsletter, Joanne Hunt outlines how you could find yourself in a mortgage-switching sweet spot. Sign up here to receive the newsletter straight to your inbox every Friday.
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