The projected drop in the number of full-time farmers to 20,000 by 2010 will require major changes in Government policy, according to the chairman of a committee which has issued a report on the future of agriculture. By then a further 60,000 farmers will be part-timers. Mr Pat O'Neill, who chaired the Agri-Food 2010 Committee to propose a strategy for the industry over the next decade, said yesterday that there was a great deal of urgency in getting policies together to meet the new situation.
An expert group had prepared the projection on farm numbers for the committee and had concluded that those involved in full-time farming would drop from 44,000 today to around 20,000.
There would be a further 60,000 part-time farmers and 20,000 farmers who would have transitional farms. Mr O'Neill said that what was important about the prediction was that it showed the need for support for part-time farming.
He rejected any idea that this would lead to "rancher-style" farming, where a small number of people would control large tracts of land.
This would not happen if part-time farmers were supported and could earn a living from their farms coupled with off-farm work.
The committee could see a blurring in the distinction between farmers and non-farmers, which would lead to a more integrated rural community.
He said that as most of the full-time farmers would be involved in milk production, the milk quota scheme had a vital role to play in the future of Irish farming in the next century.
"We believe that the minimum threshold for viability will be at least 70,000 gallons of milk production by the year 2010. We currently have only 3,000 farmers at that level and therefore radical restructuring is needed," said Mr O'Neill, who is a former chief executive of Avonmore Co-operative.
The Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh, who promised to respond within three months to the report, said that agriculture would always need a vibrant commercial section made up of full-time farmers who would be the core of the industry.
Because of the projected growth in part-time farming it would be imperative to look at the various support schemes and amend them, so they could dovetail with off-farm work.
"Some of the current schemes exclude farmers if more than 50 per cent of their income is generated off-farm and this is the kind of area that we will have to be looking at in a very serious way," he said.
The Republic now had an economy which was generating jobs into which farmers and other rural workers could go, he said, and in most of the State the rural population was growing rather than declining.
The committee also predicted that there would be fewer food processing plants and jobs in the processing industry. The food sector, said the report, would have a much greater focus on marketing and innovation in the new market conditions and would have to deliver on competitive returns to capital on labour. It also called for the establishment of a comprehensive food safety plan for the State which would clearly set out the roles of many bodies involved in this key issue.
The committee said there was a need for high standards in both animal health and welfare and it called for targets on disease control and eradication and the establishment of a representative animal welfare forum.
The committee also said the Republic needed to move quickly in the organic sector in which there was a phenomenal rate of growth in many European markets. It was essential to "get in" on this emerging market and it proposed an ambitious programme for organic production and exports. The food industry, said the report, needed improved marketing and innovation and there was a need for rationalisation of primary processing, especially in the beef sector.
It proposed that an exercise be undertaken in other sectors similar to that carried out by the Beef Task Force in the beef processing industry. All sectors would have to prepare for further liberalisation. The committee also called for targets to be set for reducing poverty.