Country profile: LuxembourgWhen Luxembourg goes to the polls on June 13th, its voters will not only choose the Grand Duchy's six representatives in the European Parliament but will elect a new national parliament too.
Opinion polls are banned for a month before polling day but most analysts expect Mr Jean-Claude Juncker's Christian Democrats to emerge again as the largest party. Mr Juncker enjoys the status of a political superstar in Luxembourg, with personal approval ratings approaching 90 per cent.
He shares power with the Liberals, who have seen their popularity slide in recent months and Mr Juncker could be in search of a new coalition partner after the election.
The distribution of Luxembourg's six seats in the European Parliament reflects the political balance nationally, with two Christian Democrats, two Socialists, one Liberal and one Green. Most analysts predict that the distribution will remain the same, although the Liberals could lose their seat to the Greens, who have seen a surge in support.
One of the most prosperous states in the EU, Luxembourg is also among the most pro-European and no Eurosceptic party has yet gained a foothold there politically. Polls show growing support, however, for a conservative nationalist party, ADR, which could upset expectations by winning its first seat in the European Parliament. Such a development would send shockwaves through the Grand Duchy, which has benefited enormously from EU membership and is home to a number of European institutions.
ADR owes much of its success to a campaign against immigration that strikes at Luxembourg's most acute political dilemma. With an ageing society and declining population, Luxembourg needs immigrants but the country's tiny population makes integration of large numbers of newcomers more difficult.
The mainstream parties favour controlled immigration, integration and the reform of pensions and social security systems to prepare Luxembourg for the effects of its demographic changes.
The results of Luxembourg's national elections could have important consequences for the EU as a whole, notably where the choice of a successor to Mr Romano Prodi as Commission president is concerned. Mr Juncker, who has long been regarded as a likely successor, has promised that, if he wins the election, he will remain as Luxembourg's prime minister. EU leaders will choose the next Commission president just four days after the election, leaving Mr Juncker in a potentially embarrassing position if he changes his mind. Analysts in Luxembourg say he was obliged to make the pledge at the start of the election campaign because his party's performance is so closely linked to his personal popularity.
Some suspect, however, that if pressed to take the Commission job, Mr Juncker will agree to rally to the European flag.