A silly season weekend before 10,000 Chinese troops arrive

"IS IT very tense in Hong Kong?" asked the voice on the telephone

"IS IT very tense in Hong Kong?" asked the voice on the telephone. "Is there going to be a Tiananmen next week?" asked another. "Are Hong Kong people happy about the handover?"

The answers are "No" "No" and "Yes and no". The mood in Hong Kong on the eve of its return to China is almost one of exhilaration. Trees have been hung with red lanterris, the parks have sprouted plastic Bambis and dolphins, the city is a blaze of light, the shops are filled with handover kitsch, and the talk among expatriates and Chinese alike is of parties and celebrations.

On the last weekend before the arrival of 10,000 Chinese troops it is silly season here. There will be a mammoth karaoke street party and a Last Night of the Proms. There will be Golden Dragon lighting ceremonies Chinese opera, countdown balls fun fairs, treasure hunts and a baby-crawling contest.

Bands will parade, pop groups will perform, fireworks will go off, much alcohol will be consumed. Handover party styles range from the sublime to the ridiculous. Hong Kong women are queueing up to get make-overs costing the equivalent of £3,600 so they can turn up at parties in "Last Empress" style with caked rouge, flower-decked hair and dresses slit to the thighs. The most treasured in town is for the Anglo-Chinese banquet to mark the transfer of sovereignty when 4,000 people led by Chinese President Jiang Zemin and Britain's Prince Charles, will tuck into smoked Scottish salmon and lobster medallions, stuffed chicken breast and red fruit pudding with raspberry sauce, washed down with Moet champagne.

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Everyone will mark the occasion. Even the Democratic Party leader, Mr Martin Lee, will attend the handover ceremony to show he supports reunification with China, however unhappy he is about what is to come under Communist Party sovereignty.

"People will feel happy about the handover event, though that does not mean the majority accept the idea of Chinese sovereignty" explained Mr David Bottomley who has been conducting opinion polls in Hong Kong for 10 years. "They don't. Their happiness reflects a mix of feelings. As the British flag is lowered on Monday it will lift a psychological barrier between Hong Kong citizens and the citizens of China. Hong Kong's Chinese citizens will feel more Chinese.

"Interestingly, it will also increase people's feelings of a national identity, not necessarily with China but with Hong Kong. Hong Kong will be a little more my place when the British give it back."

Another reason for people's acceptance of the handover is the calm personality of the territory's new leader, the shipping magnate, Mr Tung Chee-hwa, said the pollster, writing in yesterday's South China Morning Post. He is perceived to have influence with Beijing and to be strong enough to defend Hong Kong's promised high level of autonomy.

The latest poll yesterday showed that 60.9 per cent of Hong Kong people will feel happy on June 30th, most citing reasons like "because we are Chinese", or "because Hong Kong returns to China. (Three per cent said it was because "there will be a holiday".) Fifteen per cent said they would feel sad and gave a variety of reasons, mostly distrust of the Chinese Communist government.

The happiness index, up from 36 per cent a year ago, reflects an acceptance of the inevitable. For according to Mr Bottomley's latest poll, fewer than half- 40 per cent - of Hong Kong's people actually support the merger with China. A third - 35 per cent - favour independence and 19 per cent would like it to stay a British colony. Six per cent expressed no opinion. Advocating independence will become a crime after the handover because it because it threatens Chinese "national security."

A survey of all polls done in the last two months shows that if fair and democratic elections were held now for Hong Kong's parliament, the Democratic Party would easily beat pro-Beijing parties. China is replacing the elected Legislative Council with an appointed interim body until elections are held under new rules next year, and Mr Bottomley believes that if the future legislature is rigged against the democrats, this will harden the divisions of political opinion.

Since the British agreed in 1984 to give back the Asian real estate they grabbed in the 19th century, there has been no official study to see what Hong Kong people thought. Mr Bottomley has been tracking their views for the last 10 years. Support for staying a British colony slumped from 52 to 19 per cent in that time, while support for the agreed status of Special Administrative Region of China rose from 17 to 40 per cent.

Meanwhile, for those who mourn the departure of the British, their first big farewell party was on Wednesday when 30,000 people, British and Chinese, sang along with British military bands in Hong Kong stadium as they played Land of Hope and Glory and Rule Britannia. There wasn't a dry eye in the house as a lone piper played Sleep Dearie Sleep before the British national.