A very thin line between success and failure

The PDs' election campaign will be a three-month exercise in niche marketing, writes Mark Brennock , Political Correspondent

The PDs' election campaign will be a three-month exercise in niche marketing, writes Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent

Timing is everything, and the timing of the return of Michael McDowell and the recruitment of Tom Parlon could not have been better for the Progressive Democrats. The bad publicity over the Leitrim off-licence flight affair was swept away just over a fortnight ago by the arrival of the two high-profile candidates.

Now the final pre-election rally by party activists in Limerick this weekend has an unexpected atmosphere of excitement as the two men are paraded in the full media glare to boost their prospects of election in Dublin South East and Laois-Offaly respectively.

The conference is the first of an intensive pre-election series, with Fine Gael, the Green Party, Fianna Fáil and Labour all to hold national conferences and ardfheiseanna between now and the end of March.

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For a party with four deputies, one of whom (Desmond O'Malley) is retiring, the addition of two high-profile candidates is of enormous importance.

The party has 15 candidates selected and is talking to about five others, including some independent local authority members, with a view to their standing for the party. None is believed to be a nationally recognised figure, although some have significant local support. Although both Mr McDowell and Mr Parlon will have a battle to win seats, the party can now hope for up to a half dozen seats on a good day.

Mr McDowell's return will be copperfastened behind closed doors today when the party debates rule changes, one of which will make Mr McDowell party president. However, to avoid any perception that this is a job to rival the party leader, it is specified that the party president is to be appointed by the leader.

The role of the party president is not as strong as was proposed by the Attorney General two years ago in a document on the party's future. Back then he proposed that the new party president - himself - would be responsible for policy development and overseeing the drafting of the next general election manifesto. Under this plan, he would have taken some of the functions of the party leader and acted something like a chief executive, controlling and directing party officers and staff.

It was a powerful position which the party balked at, with the parliamentary party and national executive voting unanimously to turn it down.

Under today's rule change he is indeed to become party president, responsible for policy and for rebuilding the organisation. However, in exercising these functions, he is to act in conjunction with the parliamentary party and subject to the approval of the party's general council and national executive. The appointment to the post is explicitly in the gift of Ms Harney.

The media will be excluded from the debate on rule changes, which will take place during the time allocated for lunch, ensuring that only the more committed will show up. Party sources do not expect any contention over the creation of this new post for Mr McDowell and expect to devote time to offering "clarification" of the role rather than debate its merits.

Another proposed rule change signals dissatisfaction among sections of the largely liberal PD membership over the party's backing of the abortion referendum and the Tánaiste's intention to argue for a Yes vote.

The Young Progressive Democrats proposed a rule which would prevent the parliamentary party from taking a position on any future referendums without the party's 70-member general council first taking a position on the matter. The general council is the party's ruling body and has taken a line independent of the leadership on some issues in the past. However, the leadership is understood to have watered down this motion to ensure that while it calls for consultation with the general council, it does not tie the hands of the party's TDs and senators.

In her opening address to the conference last night, Ms Harney staked out her party's ideological ground. Low tax and high incentives were the way forward.

While the left would fund social welfare payments through higher tax, the PDs would do so through growth stimulated by the low-tax environment. There would be no auction politics, she said, referring to Fine Gael's promise to compensate Eircom shareholders who lost money.

The main economic motion to be debated today also concentrates of what the party sees as the successful economic formula: tax cuts followed by economic growth followed by more people at work paying taxes, leading to increasing tax revenue ending in resources to fund social spending.

With four TDs and just a couple of other serious Dáil prospects, there is a very thin line between success and failure for the Progressive Democrats. A good election could see them return with six seats, a poor one could give them just two. The opinion polls show that they have a chance, for the first time, of being returned to government for a second term.

While some candidates have a local following, nationally the party is a niche product that needs to highlight its distinctiveness to succeed. With about three months to go to polling day, this weekend marks the opening of a long campaign to do so.