Drapier's second law: it's the ones that come from nowhere which do the real damage - and so it was this week. Drapier could see it coming as Pat Rabbitte stood up on Wednesday's Order of Business and so, in truth, did Bertie Ahern, though clearly nobody else on his side did.
The startled looks on the face of his colleagues as Rabbitte asked if Ronan Kelly was indeed the brother-in-law of the Taoiseach, told it all. Nobody had warned them but more than that, the Haughey ghost is going to linger for a long while yet.
Bertie Ahern's distancing strategy is in real danger of coming unstuck - and from the most unlikely quarter.
Of course it is unfair, but that didn't stop it from being a massive own goal. Mr Kelly's impartiality or integrity is not in question but his judgment is. Surely he should have taken himself off this particular case. In the same circumstances a High Court judge almost certainly would have and it is going to be very hard to persuade the public otherwise.
We live in a time when some of the worst suspicions have a habit of coming true. The idea that the public would not be sceptical, cynical, even downright disbelieving should surely have occurred to the learned appeal commissioners, who are, after all, political appointees and, for that reason, as in the case of judges, must be seen to stand scrupulously above all political entanglements.
The one certainty is that the whole incident enlivened a hitherto lethargic Dail. For the first time in a year, the Opposition drew blood. Michael Noonan, Pat Rabbitte and Derek McDowell put the boot in and kept it in. It was the first real drubbing the Government has got in a long time. Charlie McCreevy found himself carrying the can through no fault of his own. He did it bravely but not particularly well.
The spate of phone calls flooding in to all the party headquarters all week was an indication of the extent of public disquiet, as was the unanimous booming of Thursday's editorials.
For the PDs, there was the tediously familiar dilemma. Mary Harney is not good at hiding her feelings and this for her has been a glum week. Again unfair; the PDs were in opposition when all this happened and had nothing to do with it, but the memory of the strident lectures of yesteryear will linger long and at times like this, uncomfortably, for the Progressive Democrats.
The recess could not come fast enough for Bertie and Mary. Again the strange vicissitudes of political fortune. Up to a few weeks ago it was roses, roses all the way. Nothing could go wrong and the Opposition was rendered redundant, clutching at straws.
Things have been different since the Cork by-election. A series of setbacks since then including job losses, the shenanigans of the Independents, the messiness over the Ireland on Sunday story, Tallaght Hospital and the stalemate in the North have all slowed down the momentum, overshadowed the earlier achievements and given the Government an air of vulnerability.
There is nothing strange about this. Events are always lurking in ambush and it is an inevitable fact of political life that all governments run into bad patches sooner rather than later. Generally, there is no predicting what shape these events may take or if they will come singly or in droves.
This crisis will subside. There is no strain on the Government's stability. The Christmas break will put some distance between it and this incident, but in Drapier's view, it has done real damage of a kind which will linger in the public mind and resurface at times of political sensitivity.
For Teflon Man, it was a bad moment and one which came genuinely out of the blue. Those moments, as we all know, are the dangerous ones.
To lighter matters.
Drapier is going to break with tradition this Christmas in naming his Politician of the Year.
Yes, and before you say it, if he were to confine himself to Leinster House the accolade would go to Bertie Ahern. For him it has been a magic year - starting shakily, rising to a great high and now, in the tired dog days of December, ending a little shakily, a little frazzled, the normal wear and tear of politics starting to take their toll. A bit of bad luck, a bit of misjudgment, but nonetheless a year of real substance, a year to be savoured.
That said, Drapier knows his colleagues will understand, indeed applaud, if he goes outside Leinster House to nominate his Politician of the Year. Drapier plumps for Seamus Mallon, a man who has served in our Seanad, was a key member of both forums, a parliamentarian to his fingertips, a man who is respected and cherished on all sides in this parliament.
It is no criticism of John Hume to say that where he is a man for the broad bold stroke, Seamus Mallon is the man for detail, the step-by-step approach to consensus building, the late nights of parliamentary sessions, the constant attendance at Westminster, the cut and thrust of parliamentary debate and most of all the building of trust with opponents in small ways as a prelude to the lasting trust on the bigger matters when that time comes.
Yet it is more than that.
Seamus Mallon has always been there, even in the darkest of dark days, never losing faith in the primacy of politics even when he had little reason to sustain that faith, suffering personally, enduring privation, but most of all insisting on straight talk when such was far from popular.
At a deeper level, this award goes to a man whom we all know to be a genuinely good man, honourable, a keeper of his word, but also somebody with a great sense of fun and humour and no better companion in a social setting. Seamus Mallon is now facing his toughest test.
Drapier speaks for all in here when he applauds what he has done, wishes him well and salutes him as Politician of the Year.
Drapier now moves down a few notches to his Minister of the Year. Straight off, it was not a vintage year. A lacklustre lot for the most part, some of whom could certainly apply for membership of Anonymities Anonymous. That is most certainly the way Bertie Ahern wants it and it allows him to sleep easier at night, not wondering which of his ministers is going to drop him in what. From where Drapier sits, it makes for dullness.
Only Jim McDaid occasionally looks as if he might slip his handlers and when he does, he adds a little to our gaiety.
On a more serious level, Drapier singles out three ministers. Micheal Martin continues to do well. He has been sure-footed and open-minded, courteous and keen to make things happen. He is firmly established on the list of YPLs who, in case you did not know, are those in all parties who see themselves or are seen as Young Potential Leaders.
Seeing oneself and being so seen are not necessarily one and the same. Drapier knows that Brian Cowen does not take himself too seriously as a YPL, but he is on Drapier's shortlist.
That may seem strange when Brian Cowen is discovering just what a minefield the politics of health can be. He is not doing particularly well on Tallaght, and the BTSB backlash is not yet over, while the cuts will continue to cause pain for the foreseeable future. The truth, however, is there is no good news in health.
Cowen has shown himself a fighter, capable of getting to the nub of most matters and he is not afraid to say it as he sees it, even if he causes offence - or sometimes especially if he causes offence.
Drapier's choice as Minister of the Year, however, is his old friend Charlie McCreevy. At the end of the year, the books look good, tax reform has begun and most people are happy. That is not bad going, even if the good Dr Michael Somers is questioning some of the figures, though this time he says they are even better than Charlie admits.
The new tea-drinking, slim med-down McCreevy may not be to everybody's taste - Drapier was more comfortable with the old swashbuckler and sometimes suspects that Charlie McCreevy was also. Nonetheless, he congratulates him on a year well spent and for having the courage to help the bookies in their hour of need.
Drapier will hand out the rest of his awards in the New Year.
Have a good Christmas.