Abbas brinkmanship may play to Hamas's strength

MIDDLE EAST: Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has ruled out dialogue with Hamas, claiming the movement has plunged Gaza into…

MIDDLE EAST:Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has ruled out dialogue with Hamas, claiming the movement has plunged Gaza into darkness, and accused it of plotting to assassinate him.

Hamas is trying to establish its own state in Gaza, he said, thereby scuttling the Palestinian drive for independence. Following an address on Wednesday evening, Mr Abbas yesterday received the backing of the 129-member central council, a Fatah-dominated PLO organ, for his plan to stabilise the West Bank and isolate Gaza.

In order to establish legitimacy for his moves, he reverted to the appointed PLO central council because he could not obtain the backing of the elected Hamas majority legislature. Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri responded by saying the president's words were "inappropriate" and condemned his repudiation of dialogue.

Abbas' strategy of ruling by decree, forming an emergency government, and isolating Gaza is risky. He does not have the full support of many Palestinians or all of his Fatah movement. Palestinians believe this strategy has been imposed on him by Israel, the US and EU. Palestinians prefer a national unity government to a Fatah-only administration. They do not believe Palestinians can afford a split at this critical juncture in their long struggle for self-determination.

Palestinians remain unconvinced that Fatah, seen as corrupt and self-serving, is capable of ruling effectively.

A measure of the emergency government's effectiveness is likely to be its ability to tackle armed factions affiliated with Fatah, clans and other groups that are running amok in the West Bank. Newly-appointed prime minister Salam Fayyad has promised to make security his priority, but unless the Palestine Authority's lawmen can disarm and disband all armed factions, Palestinians will continue to feel insecure. Abbas has not dealt with this problem since he was elected president in January 2005.

Fatah is split between the old guard of Yasser Arafat's entourage, and the pretenders, led by Marwan Barghouti - the movement's West Bank grassroots leader imprisoned by Israel. The old guard has adopted a hard line on Hamas while Barghouti's supporters want to close the door on reconciliation. Barghouti, Fatah's revolutionary council and leading Fatah figures still in Gaza also want the former Fatah strongman there, Muhammad Dahlan, stripped of power and those responsible for military defeat to be held accountable. Barghouti's supporters, hailing from the West Bank and Gaza, are committed to the reform of Fatah, while the old guard reject change and are determined to retain power by any means.

The struggle within Fatah could weaken the movement as it tries to deal with West Bank structures and centres of influence built up over 20 years by Hamas While Hamas has developed a marked presence in civil associations and elected municipalities, it also has a deeply rooted secret organisation dedicated to resisting Israeli occupation. Furthermore, Hamas's military wing has had close connections with Fatah paramilitaries, particularly in the northern West Bank.

They have mounted joint operations against Israel and have more in common than they do with Abbas and the old guard. For the present, the Hamas is unlikely to strike at Fatah because Palestinians are appalled at what happened in Gaza. For Abbas's gamble to succeed he must secure major items on a list of long-standing demands, particularly the release from Israeli jails of key Fatah prisoners, including Barghouti.

He needs to ensure Israeli implementation of "benchmarks" laid down by US security co-ordinator Gen Keith Dayton who calls for a timetable for the elimination of all of the 549 Israeli checkpoints and barriers in the West Bank and an end to closures. He says Israel needs to remove settler outposts, institute a freeze on settlement activity, and halt construction of the West Bank wall.

Abbas must convince Israel to release $700 million (¤523 million) in tax and tariff revenues. He is desperate for meaningful talks with Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert and hopes Monday's summit in Egypt will start negotiations leading to a deal that will give Palestinians hope for an end to occupation and statehood. Unless Abbas and his emergency government achieve several of these demands soon, Fatah could fracture and its fighters could join forces with Hamas to resume operations against Israel and stand together against his policy of courting Israel and the West.