The impression of inaction on the issue of decommissioning is, according to sources close to the exercise, just that - an impression. According to the sources, there has been steady activity throughout this year and, in recent weeks, a flurry of meetings in response to the modalities and potential political or other problems in the way of the surrender or destruction of weapons.
The body charged with overseeing the process, the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) is, according to security sources, having to write its own script for the Irish decommissioning exercise.
There have been instances of decommissioning resulting from the culmination of other peace processes in recent years. But in most cases there have been standing armies or militias that have been able to dispose of weapons in fairly clearcut circumstances.
The conflict in Central America was ended in the early 1990s after regional agreements to stop fighting, and large-scale decommissioning of weapons took place under the direction of ONUSAL (United Nations Observer Mission to El Salvador) observers. After more than a decade of terrible violence - 75,000 people died in El Salvador alone - the combatants all agreed to lay down arms over a two-year period. The leftwing guerrillas in El Salvador handed their weapons over to the UN observers on the Nicaraguan border and the weapons were destroyed.
The Central American weapons decommissioning took place only after tortuous and protracted political negotiations but at a point where there was agreement among all the combatants that there was no further use in violence. That, in theory, is what could happen here. According to security sources, there are hopes but also complications. Although the Provisional IRA stated 13 days ago that it would not decommission any of its arms, there are hopes that this is part of a filibuster by the Provisionals that may have run its course. It is pointed out that with the declaring of a permanent ceasefire by the Provisional IRA splinter group, the "Real IRA", which carried out the Omagh atrocity, the Provisionals now have an opportunity to decommission while their dissidents are in retreat. It is hoped that the Provisionals could use the opportunity at this point to hand over or destroy Semtex or other weapons while there is such great public opinion and security force attention directed against the dissidents responsible for Omagh.
There is, in fact, some concern that if the Provisionals do not use the present opening to decommission they might lose the opportunity as the dissidents regroup under another banner, possibly that of the Continuity IRA which has stated it will not call a ceasefire.
The Provisionals have the largest arsenal, and the bulk of it is located in the Republic. Garda experience is that the organisation keeps large supplies of weapons in hides in the south-west, possibly in the Galtee Mountain range, and has a series of smaller hides in the midlands and Border area. There could be as much as three tonnes of Semtex hidden in the State, but it is not clear if the Provisionals still have control of it or how much has been lost to dissidents intent on holding on to it.
The week before last the Sinn Fein figure, Martin McGuinness, was announced as intermediary between the Provisionals and the decommissioning commission.
THERE are established modalities for decommissioning which Mr McGuinness has been made aware of in talks with the commission chairman, General John de Chastelain. The Provisionals can simply make a telephone call to the commission's offices on the Upper Newtownards Road in Belfast or in Dublin Castle, give a codeword and a location for the weapons it wishes to surrender.
They can also inform the commission in advance that Provisional IRA members are about to transport weapons for destruction and arrangements can be made for their collection. Legislation was passed in both jurisdictions at the beginning of last year to provide immunity for people handing weapons over in these circumstances. The legislation states that the weapons must be destroyed immediately and not forensically tested to see if they were used in past crimes.
In the Republic the commission has had a series of meetings with senior gardai and military. The gardai will provide assistance for the commission in seeing that weapons are safely recovered and handed over for verifiable destruction. The Army's Ordnance Corps has been briefed and is ready to carry out destruction of explosives. Aside from the Provisional IRA, the only group to have an established intermediary with the commission is the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF). The Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) Assembly member, Mr Billy Hutchinson, a former leading UVF member from west Belfast who served a lengthy prison sentence, has agreed to act as intermediary for that group should it decide to hand over weapons.
However, the other main loyalist paramilitary group, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA) - whose political wing, the Ulster Democratic Party, failed to secure any seats in the Assembly - has yet to allow the nomination of an intermediary. It is feared the UDA has broken up into constituent parts and now exists only as a very loose federation of paramilitary gangs based in the greater Belfast and Derry areas.
There are also serious concerns that many members have, effectively, left the UDA and taken weapons with them to pursue careers in crime. Both the Garda Siochna and the RUC fear that many weapons will, in fact, go in this direction.
The Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) had shown signs that it was prepared to decommission weapons after calling its permanent ceasefire three weeks ago. There were indications that it was about to nominate an intermediary. However, this appears to have collapsed following a series of incidents in Belfast, starting last weekend when eight people associated with the group were arrested by the RUC after a self-confessed member of the organisation was produced at a press conference to say he was a police informer. The man subsequently disappeared - into police custody, it is believed - and eight men were arrested.
According to sources in the city, any movement towards nominating an intermediary for the INLA has stopped while this affair is sorted out. The INLA has about 30 prisoners, mostly in the Maze, who are not benefiting from the early-release scheme so long as there is no proper verification of its ceasefire.
There is also uncertainty over the intentions of the Co Armagh-based loyalist group, the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF), which also called a ceasefire earlier this year. It had appointed Pastor Kenny McClinton, a former loyalist prisoner, as its intermediary but he resigned two weeks ago after the British government declined to accept the bona fides of the LVF's ceasefire. It is not clear if the LVF also hopes to win early release for its 30-odd prisoners in the Maze.