The Taoiseach has revived the 'Bertie for Europe' speculation, but does he want the job, or is it just a ruse? asks Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspndent
In the past 48 hours the Taoiseach has chosen to stir speculation that he might after all be interested in becoming President of the European Commission.
The question is whether this is genuine, or possibly a ruse to distract the attention of the media and his party from expected poor election results.
Barring a major surprise, tomorrow's newspapers will be full of stories of how Fianna Fáil has been punished by voters. Backbenchers who grumbled since the 2002 general election remained dutifully silent during Irish EU Presidency, allowing the Taoiseach spend a lot of time out of the country without having to deal with internal party unrest at home.
But the Presidency ends in 18 days. Bad election results will panic many backbenchers into fearing that their Dáil seats are under threat. The press will seek them out and give them a platform to voice their dissatisfaction. Speculation that Mr Ahern's leadership of the party is no longer secure may surface tomorrow.
The effect of Mr Ahern's fanning of speculation that he could depart for Brussels may be to distract attention from this. While poor results could lead some in the party to push for change at the top, reports that their once -greatest electoral asset could walk away from the party could panic others into demanding that he stay.
The Taoiseach says nothing by accident. At the end of the G8 Summit in Georgia on Thursday he spoke to Irish reporters and clearly shifted from his previous unequivocal line that he was not interested in the job. "At the moment I have to make a report [on the G8 Summit] and we'll see how that is dealt with. And then we'll see what's happening. But it's not something that's on my agenda." His spokeswoman said yesterday that he is still under a lot of pressure to take the post, and that it is "still not on his agenda".
This is quite different from the previous statements that he does not want the job. Something that is not on your agenda this week can be on your agenda next week. Mr Ahern is believed to have further fuelled the speculation in comments made to at least one Sunday newspaper, to be published tomorrow.
His remarks were made in the context of the unusual situation where with just five days to go before the European Council which is to decide the issue, it remains impossible to make a confident prediction as to who will get the job.
It is seen as being the "turn" of a centre-right politician from a small country and preferably a prime minister. The French and German leaders initially wanted the Luxembourg Prime Minister, Mr Jean-Claude Juncker, but he has insisted he is not interested. They then backed the Belgian Prime Minister, Mr Guy Verhofstadt, who remains the most talked about candidate.
However, Mr Verhofstadt has a tendency to make politically inopportune pro-integration remarks, a trait that arouses hostility from Britain. Reuters reported a few days ago that Mr Blair had told Mr Chirac and Mr Schröder that he would drop Britain's objections to Mr Verhofstadt if Britain won on its "red line" issues in the EU Constitutional Treaty negotiations - the insistence on retaining the national veto on tax, social welfare and justice and home affairs.
However, other sources say this report understates continuing British reservations, and that the Dutch and Polish Governments are unenthusiastic about the Belgian as well.
Speculation persists that British Commissioner Mr Chris Patten is still a possibility, and even that Mr Juncker might change his mind if France and Germany back him strongly.
In such an atmosphere of uncertainty, the Taoiseach's name has been mentioned in informal top-level discussions and in several European newspapers. While Mr Ahern's denials of interest have been accepted at face value by many, he has been not slow to tell the Irish public just how much he is wanted in Europe, and that a significant number of EU governments have asked him to consider the job.
In addition, while insisting in an interview a couple of weeks ago that he was not interested, he proceeded to describe the attributes required for the job. This description - a consensus builder, a listener, someone who was not an "in your face" leader - sounded uncannily like a description of himself.
If he is genuinely interested, obstacles remain. France wants someone who can speak French. Mr Ahern has no continental European languages, and has acknowledged himself that this could be a drawback in the job.
Mr Ahern has ensured the speculation will run over the weekend. But he has kept the reason for choosing to do so to himself.