When opinion polls are described as a snapshot, the implication is that the figures represent a static picture of the state of play. However, a certain volume of opinion is constantly changing, and particularly in the political arena some opinions are continually being influenced by background developments.
When such changes are fastmoving or numerous it is not always possible to identify the extent to which certain factors may influence the overall situation. One way of at least partially addressing this is to conduct research when the background is likely to be most stable.
This survey was taken this week, a few days after the Dublin by-election, and during the hiatus when the nurses were balloting on the Labour Court recommendation. The tribunals, however, were continuing to attract media attention. It should also be noted that the survey was completed a day before the publication of the Programme for Government review, which received mixed media treatment.
This Fianna Fail-PD Government has been in office for almost 29 months, and The Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll of April 1998 - following the signing of the Belfast Agreement - signalled its pinnacle of support. Mr Ahern's satisfaction rating as Taoiseach was at an all-time high of 84 per cent; Government satisfaction was 73 per cent, and 57 per cent supported Fianna Fail.
Today's survey shows evidence of the personal impact which Mr Ahern as Taoiseach is making on the electorate. He is back up to 69 per cent, similar to the February poll; this despite a drop in Government satisfaction ratings of 12 points since June and five points since May, while Fianna Fail support has remained static.
Further analysis shows that many factors have contributed to 47 per cent of electors being dissatisfied with the Government. While high taxation, healthcare, the nurses' strike and pay rises for politicians were all to the fore, the major mentions were the tribunals, dishonesty in politics, scandals and the performances of certain named individuals.
Although the satisfaction rating criterion is far removed from both voting intentions and behaviour, a more detailed analysis provides a number of clues to what is happening.
Just 44 per cent of electors aged under 24 are satisfied with the Government; but 66 per cent are satisfied with Mr Ahern as Taoiseach. One could assume that he is seen to identify with this group, but the same situation applies to the over-65 age group, as it also does to electors in all four provinces and across all demographic groups.
Of even greater significance is the fact that while majorities of supporters of Fine Gael, Labour and the Progressive Democrats are dissatisfied with the Government, similar majorities in these same groups are satisfied with Mr Ahern as Taoiseach.
While Ms Harney's rating as Tanaiste is down a non-significant two points to 61 per cent, she continues to achieve majority ratings across all demographic groups and parties.
The ratings of John Bruton and Ruairi Quinn continue to reflect the fact that they are in Opposition.
On the party support criterion, there is no significant change for any party since the last comparable poll in May. (The core and adjusted figures, for this and the May survey, are shown below right.)
Although the current core and adjusted figures represent a level of stability in support for all parties, the figures cannot be taken as indicative of the outcome of the next election.
While a fifth express themselves as undecided, the turnout in the 1997 general election and in the European and recent by-election suggest that many who have expressed a party preference do not vote. This is one of a number of factors which have contributed to recent opinion polls overstating the level of support Fianna Fail achieves in elections.
MRBI has undertaken a more detailed analysis of its recent opinion-poll data, which has produced a basis for adjustment of the party support figures. MRBI's view is that if an election was held this week on the day the opinion poll was conducted, then allowing for the likely turnout, the result would have been closer to: Fianna Fail 41 per cent, Fine Gael 25 per cent, Labour 17 per cent, Progressive Democrats 4 per cent, Sinn Fein 4 per cent, Greens 3 per cent and Others 6 per cent.