Bertie Ahern will contact John Bruton and Dick Spring today to discuss the terms of reference appropriate to a new tribunal concerning payments to politicians. The fact that Mr Ahern has taken personal charge of the negotiations indicates the situation's seriousness. Normally, the matter would be handled by the party whips and party leaders would decide.
These are dangerous times for the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrat government. Any suggestion of a cover-up would do serious, long-term damage to Fianna Fail and could conceivably undo the Government. And yet a disclosure of further venality at the highest political level could place great pressure on Mr Ahern.
The Taoiseach cannot be seen to be acting under PD pressure. And yet he may have to sanction investigations some of his colleagues would resent. In that regard, the position of his Minister for Foreign Affairs is fraught with danger.
Mr Burke is regarded as the weakest link in the coalition Government by the Opposition. And it contemplates the possibility of an early return to power if he can be broken or discredited. But to do that would require involving him with the new tribunal and seeking a damaging investigation into his receipt of £30,000 from a building firm.
Mr Ahern is standing by Mr Burke and he accepts that the money represented a legitimate political contribution, without strings attached. The Tanaiste, Ms Harney, cautiously accepts Mr Ahern's assessment. And the Opposition parties openly want the Foreign Minister's blood.
Yesterday, Mr Burke again absented himself from the Cabinet discussions concerning establishing a tribunal. And his colleagues agreed that the "Ansbacher accounts" and the money trail involving Mr Haughey and his lifestyle, along with details of Mr Lowry's financial affairs, should be investigated. Mr Burke and his affairs were not included. There was no suggestion he might explain the payment to the Dail.
Mr Ahern will outline the Government's position to Mr Bruton and to Mr Spring today in separate conversations. He can expect dusty replies. For while the Opposition will welcome the promised investigation into Mr Haughey's and Mr Lowry's affairs, it will not accept the judgment in relation to Mr Burke. It is already preparing for a robust Dail session concerning this.
As the Dail prepares to debate the McCracken report on September 10th and 11th, some Fianna Fail ministers are increasingly defensive. They know that if the choice lay between a detailed political/business investigation of the Haughey years and the destruction of this Government, few Opposition politicians would hesitate to cultivate their own interests.
As a result, the terms of reference for a new tribunal are being carefully devised to address public concerns while providing some protection for the Government.
In this, Mr Ahern played a clever card by announcing that a referendum designed to end strict Cabinet confidentiality will be held, to coincide with the Presidential election, on October 30th. It is the clearest indication yet that John Hume will not be a candidate - if a referendum is held so will an election, ending the possibility of Mr Hume being an agreed candidate. But it also opens up a new vista for Mr Reynolds.
Such a change would allow the High Court, or a tribunal, to seek the disclosure of Cabinet discussions in the public interest. The Supreme Court ruling which provided for strict Cabinet confidentiality was made on foot of an application by Mr Harry Whelehan, Mr Reynolds's Attorney General, during the beef tribunal hearings. A change in that constitutional position, given the work of a new tribunal, could have unforeseen consequences: and not just for Mr Haughey and Mr Lowry.
Passage of such a referendum Bill would permit investigations, where the public interest justified it, into a series of other contentious government decisions during Mr Haughey's years as Taoiseach.
Just how far back such an investigation will go is open for discussion between the party leaders. The Government suggests the new tribunal should carry out an initial investigation into the financial affairs of Mr Haughey and Mr Lowry before it reports to the Dail and gets down to the formal taking of evidence at Dublin Castle. In that interim period, terms of reference might be changed.
Mr Ahern, as the Fianna Fail new broom, is under pressure to lift the old dusty carpets and to sweep the house squeaky clean. It is tricky. How do you show willing to embrace reforms without handing your political enemies loaded guns?
The Taoiseach and the Government have gone some of the way in these preliminary proposals. The expected - negative - reaction of the Opposition leaders will advance matters. And Mr Ahern will have to decide how to handle the growing silence that surrounds Mr Burke.