THE Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, will this week begin the process of forming a minority coalition government with the support of two Independent TDs in the wake of the dramatic general election result, which has produced a hung Dail.
Mr Ahern will consult his front bench colleagues tomorrow on the best options to secure a stable government. He will meet the leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Mary Harney, later in the week to begin negotiations on a programme for the new government.
Fianna Fail has a total of 77 seats and the Progressive Democrats 4 (subject to a recount today in Dublin South East, where Mr Michael McDowell is challenging, his defeat by Mr John Gormley, of the Green Party). The combined strength of the parties at 8 seats - is still two below the minimum of the 83 needed to secure a majority in the Dail. Excluding the appointment of a Ceann Comhairle, they still need the support of two Independent TDs.
The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, has conceded that it was now likely that the Fianna Fail/PD combination will have a better chance of securing a majority when the 28th Dail meets on June 26th. The outgoing Rainbow Coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left secured only 75 seats.
Fianna Fail strategists are confident that Mr Ahern will be elected Taoiseach when the Dail meets on June 26th. Most of the 10 nonaligned TDs, comprising 7 Independents, 2 Greens and 1 Sinn Fein, lean towards Fianna Fail.
The largest party is expected to make early attempts to reconcile its differences with the new Independent TD for Kerry South, Mr Jackie Healy Rea. He fell out with Fianna Fail when he failed to secure a nomination to contest the election. The intention is to invite him to join the Fianna Fail parliamentary party as soon as possible.
Fianna Fail will also consult with Independents Ms Mildred Fox and Mr Tony Gregory with a view to securing their support for a government which would last for five years.
The election of a Ceann Comhairle will be the first test of the new government's strength on the first day of the new Dail. It is understood that Mr Gregory, who has been a member of the Dail for 15 years, may be offered the position.
Fianna Fail sources indicated that Mr Ahern would fully honour his preelection arrangement with the PDs, despite their poor performance in the poll, which resulted in the halving of their Dail seats. Ms Harney is still expected to be offered the position of Tanaiste in the new government. Fianna Fail is considering also offering the PDs a position of one junior minister with a seat at the Cabinet table - an arrangement similar to that of Mr Pat Rabbitte, of Democratic Left, in the Rainbow Government.
There were early signs that the three Rainbow parties, Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left, would go their own separate ways in the new Dail. The Tanaiste, Mr Spring, said yesterday that it was in Labour's interest to go into opposition and regroup, and he intends to continue as party leader.
The Dail parties are slowly coming to terms with their electoral fate. Fianna Fail, with a similar first preference vote of 39 per cent to the last election, won nine additional seats. Although the party performed exceptionally well on transfers to maximise seat gains, some of its strategists were disappointed that its share of the overall vote was so low.
Fine Gael, on the other hand, increased its first preference vote by 3.5 per cent and won 7 extra seats to bring its total to 54. Last night, it recorded a historic breakthrough in Limerick West, winning two out of the three seats there for the first time.
The Labour Party suffered badly, losing almost half its TDs. It won only 17 seats compared to the 33 it held in the last Dail.
The PDs were devastated in the election, returning only four of their outgoing 8 TDs. Yet, like Fianna Fail, they secured the same share of the vote as in 1992.
The most dramatic outcome of the election, however, was the success of 10 Independent or small party candidates. Mr Caoimhghin O Caolain will be the first Sinn Fein TD to actually sit in the Dail.
Mr Ahern will be making every attempt to ensure that his government will not be dependent on Sinn Fein support in the new Dail.
