ANALYSIS:Fianna Fáil, the Greens and Libertas travel with more hope – or prayers – than expectation, writes MARK HENNESSY
EVERY POLITICAL party desires the elusive concept of momentum during elections, hoping that invisible tides will bring them safely to victory. So far, in this multi-pronged campaign, every party can claim to some degree to enjoy it – bar Fianna Fáil and, to a lesser extent, the Greens.
FIANNA FÁIL
From the off, Fianna Fáil has been on the back foot. Canvassers were slow to appear on the ground, fearful of vociferous attack. In many places, that is exactly what they received, though the nature of the welcome has ebbed and flowed somewhat over recent weeks.
Throughout Fianna Fáil has urged voters not to use June 5th as a referendum on the Government but, rather, to vote local. The theory was that hard-working FF councillors would survive on their own records while carefully-chosen newcomers could parry blame for the past.
Some in Fianna Fáil had pinned modest hopes that Taoiseach Brian Cowen would repeat his 2007 performance when he took the election by the scruff of the neck. Thus far, that has not happened, and it probably never could have. The party’s official launches for the locals, Euros and two byelections were lacklustre, and so has he been.
On canvass, Cowen has kept safely inside party ranks rather than trying to seek out votes from those who have lost the party faith. In fairness, he would have been giving hostages to fortune if he had tried: he would likely have ended up with unflattering TV images that would live long in the memory.
Every one of the party's candidates has had difficult moments, including legendary vote-getter, Euro South MEP Brian Crowley. Early on in the election, Crowley, used to adoration and not criticism, had literature handed back to him while canvassing in Ballincollig, Co Cork. However, his campaign bedded down, and he seems assured of victory with a 30 per cent poll rating in the last Irish Times/tns mrbi survey.
The planning for a poor election result has already begun. The definition of a good result now is for Fianna Fáil to hold on to its four Euro seats. Such a result would of itself be an achievement; but the party’s performance in city and county council elections will be far more significant.
In 2004, Fianna Fáil won 33.5 per cent of the local election vote, and lost 80 seats on the back of voters’ anger about cuts imposed after the 2002 elections.
The situation could not get any worse, party supporters believed.
However, it could, and will, if Fianna Fail’s vote share matches, or even somewhat exceeds, opinion poll figures.
In expectation of a difficult time, FF headquarters slimmed down election tickets, and lost two dozen names, and other disgruntled ex-party candidates have chosen to fly under an Independent flag.
Cowen is resigned to several dozen councillors being defeated, along with the loss of the Dublin Central and Dublin South byelections. The latter is a given; but council losses will cause trouble. Firstly, the defeated themselves will complain, while the party’s senators – dependent upon councillors for votes – will know the writing is on the wall for many of them, and thus will be more likely to voice dissent.
The question, really, is not whether FF will lose. There is no doubt but that FF will bleed on the battlefield. The point at issue is whether it can walk from it, or need to be stretchered off, taking Cowen’s leadership with it.
FINE GAEL
Fine Gael, on the other hand, began brilliantly: producing RTÉ’s George Lee out of the hat to run in Dublin South, and emphasising national issues above everything else, to exploit voter dissatisfaction. Party leader Enda Kenny played to his strengths, spending time out on the canvass and sticking to a tightly-run script during media interviews where he can sometimes founder.
Before the election, Fianna Fáil argued that Fine Gael was running too many candidates; though, if anything, the latter now feels that it could have added more to benefit from a rising tide of support. However, the very curious incident of the Fine Gael party strategist and Sinn Féin has overshadowed the final days, leaving other senior figures disowning FG director of elections Frank Flannery’s words, and downplaying their significance.
Flannery, who mused out loud about Fine Gael entering government with Sinn Féin in time, rarely talks without reason, however; numerous motivations have been ascribed to him.
Undoubtedly, Flannery was thinking about Sinn Féin’s Christy Burke, whose transfers may well decide who wins in Dublin Central, assuming, of course, that he does not win it himself.
Quickly slapped down by Kenny, Flannery may also have been exhibiting a touch of hubris about the next Dáil election, one likely to see Fine Gael in power.
The Flannery intervention has irritated Labour, which always reacts badly when Fine Gael is on the rise, feeling that the larger party can never resist the opportunity to lord it over them.
Up to now, both have been fortunate that Fianna Fáil has failed to exploit the real and substantial differences between them on the banking crisis.
LABOUR PARTY
Labour, like Fine Gael, has driven home the message that national issues will decide, and matched it by the selection of an interesting crop of young candidates who could form a new Dáil guard after the next election.
And it has hopes that Nessa Childers, who has traded on being the daughter of late Fianna Fáil president Erskine Childers, and little else, could win in the East Euro constituency. Throughout, Labour has protected her from scrutiny, running a below-radar campaign that has stayed away from detail and, instead, sought to capture the mood for change abroad. Even her evident lack of knowledge about agriculture seems not to have hurt her.
Unlike Fine Gael, Labour has been able to capitalise on the popularity of its leader, Eamon Gilmore, who has worked hard to be in tune with public opinion in recent times.
GREEN PARTY
Despite being in government, the Green Party has struggled to make its voice heard during the campaign, and much about the coalition’s future depends on what happens to its 18 city and county councillors.
On the European stage, neither Dan Boyle in South, nor Deirdre de Búrca in Dublin has prospered, and Senator Boyle’s early attempts to get publicity did much to create tremors about the coalition’s chances of survival, without achieving anything else.
SINN FÉIN
Sinn Féin is having mixed fortunes. In Dublin, Mary Lou McDonald is battling to stay on as an MEP, and faces threats from both Fianna Fáil and Socialist Joe Higgins.
Conscious of the need for transfers, McDonald has tried to make herself as unobjectionable as possible to supporters of every other party – perhaps to the point of dullness. The destination of the third seat is vital for Sinn Féin, because she will be left without any political office, at least until the next Dáil, if she does not win on Friday.
Given his lack of traction with voters in the Republic, Gerry Adams has kept a low profile, and has only begun to appear in the final days to any real extent.
In the Euro North West constituency, Fianna Fáil’s Pat “The Cope” Gallagher’s late decision to run has scuppered any chance that Padraic Mac Lochlainn may have had.
In South, though, Martin Ferris’s daughter Toireasa has performed surprisingly well, though a real tilt at the third seat is asking a lot. Either way, though, she has done much to soothe the party’s fears about her ability to take over from her father at the next general election.
LIBERTAS
Libertas’s campaign has nosedived in East and Dublin, with neither Raymond O’Malley or Caroline Simons showing, and all will now ride on Declan Ganley in North West.
So far, the polls hold poor tidings for him; but Dana, who is now supporting him, did not really show in 1999 until the final days, so he will pray for the same.
He will not be the only one doing so. The careers of many leading politicians, and perhaps even of their parties, could be decided by what voters decide on Friday.