A Michael Portillo-Iain Duncan Smith showdown for the Conservative leadership appears the likeliest prospect after yesterday's re-run first round ballot of MPs which saw the elimination of Mr Michael Ancram.
However, the former Chancellor, Mr Kenneth Clarke, insisted there was "all to play for" as the leadership contest moved into "the serious part of the process" in next week's third and fourth round of the parliamentary primary. Next Tuesday's vote will determine which three candidates enter the fray for the Thursday ballot, from which the MPs will decide which two finally go before the party's estimated 300,000 members in September.
Mr Portillo remained ahead of the field yesterday, with 50 votes. Mr Duncan Smith came second, with 42, still narrowly ahead of Mr Clarke on 39. Mr David Davis came fourth with 18 votes, just one ahead of Mr Ancram who became the first candidate to be eliminated.
Mr Davis vowed to remain in the contest, despite losing three supporters after his tie with Mr Ancram on Tuesday. However, the expectation at Westminster is that Mr Davis will follow Mr Ancram out of the contest next time. Last night the focus was on Mr Ancram's 17 votes, with Mr Clarke seemingly confident he can claim the lion's share of them. That opened-up the prospect that the Europhile Mr Clarke could assume second place on Tuesday, ahead of the final elimination battle on Thursday. However Conservative sources say the majority of Mr Davis's supporters will in turn divide between Mr Portillo and Mr Duncan Smith.
Despite public insistence to the contrary, Mr Portillo must have been disappointed to increase his tally by just one vote yesterday, and to find himself still with less than a third of the available votes in the Conservative parliamentary party. Mr Duncan Smith and Mr Clarke by contrast each gained an extra three votes. Nervousness within the Portillo camp will have been increased by the findings of a Daily Mail survey yesterday that the vast majority of Conservative constituency chiefs do not want him as leader.
Mr Portillo has clearly gambled on telling his party up-front what he means and intends by "inclusivity" and "tolerance", in terms of confronting policies on cannabis and Section 28, which bans the promotion of homosexuality in schools. And the Thatcherite right, sensing that the Portillo bandwagon has so far failed to gather much momentum, clearly hope the apparent constituency backlash will influence MPs as they make their final selections from a narrowing field.
One Portillo supporter last night conceded it was possible that Mr Portillo could slip behind and see Mr Clarke and Mr Duncan Smith emerge as the final two candidates for the September showdown. However, even given yesterday's disappointing pattern of transferring support, Mr Portillo is now just six votes short of the 56-vote threshold needed to ensure a place on the final ticket.