SERIOUS crime has fallen by 27 per cent in New York City. The man responsible for the astonishing decline, Police Commissioner William J. Bratton leaves his post next Monday.
His successor is the Fire Commissioner, Howard Safir, who is neither a policeman nor a fireman. Mr Safir is a long-time friend of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, which is why he was appointed.
Mayors, governors and presidents in the US system enjoy a great deal of power, and though it is customary to put police and "fire officers in charge of technical departments, it is not mandatory
Mr Giuliani's first term ends next year. The New York Times suggests that the mayor is jealous of the publicity Mr Bratton received for his anti-crime success, a credit he thinks is rightly his since the mayor appoints the police commissioner.
New York attracts millions of visitors who spend millions of dollars in one of the world's most exciting and perhaps dangerous cities. If it becomes relatively safe to wander about and enjoy its sights and sounds then more people will want to visit New York.
Their safety is the responsibility of the city's 30,000 or so police officers. Mr Bratton, who began his career in New York, went to Boston as chief of police, returned here in January 1994. He will now go to work as security chief of a chain of banks.
The brash style of the 48-year-old police commissioner did not appeal to everyone. The head of the Civil Liberties Union in New York told the New York Times. "For most New Yorkers he was the police commissioner who was in charge when crime statistics dramatically declined. Yet for some New Yorkers, Bill Bratton was the police commissioner who was in charge when complaints about police misconduct dramatically increased."
Mayor Giuliani is up for re-election next year. A Republican in an overwhelmingly Democratic city where his party counts for little electorally, he was elected because his opponent, Mayor David Dinkins, was an African-American. Mr Giuliani was narrowly defeated in 1982 by Mr Dinkins.
Blacks make up about 30 per cent of the city's population which is not enough to elect a black candidate if the contest is waged along racial or ethnic lines. Once upon a time Tammany Hall took care of such distinctions.
This century two Republicans and an anti-Tammany Democrat have defeated the official Democrat in mayoral elections.
The independent Democrat was John Purroy Mitchel, grandson of the Young Irelander, John Mitchel. He defeated the Tammany candidate in 1913 but lost in 1917 because he supported the war. He joined the army and was killed when his plane crashed on a training flight.
Other Republican mayors were Fiorello La Guardia, who held office from 1933 to 1945 and is remembered for reading comics over the radio to children during a school strike, and Johns V. Lindsay, who was elected in 1965 and re-elected in 1969. He became a Democrat.
The record is not encouraging for Mr Giuliani, a successful federal prosecutor before he decided to run for mayor. If blacks and Hispanics joined forces they would have the numbers to defeat him which is why he needs an issue like crime to rally whites and win.
So who should get the credit for the drop in crime? "There is enough credit to go around, Mr Bratton says. The mayor wants all the credit, apparently, because he appointed Mr Bratton.
Although in public the mayor and Mr Bratton got along well enough, their private conversations were less friendly, the New York Times suggests.
When Mr Giuliani learned that Mr Bratton was writing a book, he told the city council to review the commissioner's contract for possible breach of the law. Mr Bratton said that was unnecessary for he was leaving anyway. And he resigned.
Next in line to the police commissioner was the first deputy commissioner, John Timoney, a native of Dublin, who arrived in America, aged 11, with his family in 1962. He joined the New York police 29 years ago. His spectacular rise through the ranks seemed to insure his succession.
The speculation was wrong. Mr Safir got the job because he is loyal to the mayor and will give him the credit for the 27 per cent reduction of crime in New York. He began his career in 1965 as an undercover agent for the Federal bureau of Narcotics. Later he worked in the Ronald Reagan Justice Department with Rudy Giuliani. Two years ago Rudy made him fire commissioner.
There was rumbling in police ranks when Mr Giuliani announced that his choice as police commissioner was Mr Safir. Mr Timoney was heard saying Mr Safir was "a lightweight". He planned to resign with Mr Bratton.
The mayor heard or read the full exchange. He told Mr Timoney to turn in his gear and get out - immediately. Which he did.