Armchair guide to the count

Galway East to Wicklow.

Galway East to Wicklow.

Galway East (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel Tracey (FF), Joe Callanan (FF), Paul Connaughton (FG), Paddy McHugh (Ind)

McHugh is vulnerable, particularly to the Fine Gael challenge. FG is running four candidates, and former TD Ulick Burke is the best bet to join Connaughton in the Dáil if the party scores a breakthrough. One of the FF seats could also be at risk. Watch for a possible change in FF personnel, if former TD Michael Kitt makes it back at the expense of either Tracey or Callanan.

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Galway West (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Eamon Ó Cuiv (FF), Frank Fahey (FF), Padraic McCormack (FG), Michael D Higgins (Lab), Noel Grealish (PD)

Can mayor of Galway Niall Ó Brolcháin secure a seat for the Greens and at whose expense? The perception is that Grealish, who took the old Bobby Molloy seat last time, is the most vulnerable. The extent to which Independent Catherine Connolly, formerly Labour, will eat into Higgins's vote will be interesting, although the likelihood is that her transfers will go back to the former Labour minister and party chairman.

Kerry North (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Tom McEllistrim (FF), Jimmy Deenihan (FG), Martin Ferris (SF)

Labour's Terry O'Brien has launched a strong bid to win back the old Spring seat which was held in Kerry North from 1943 until the last election when Dick Spring lost out to Ferris. The rivalry between McEllistrim and running mate Norma Foley could see O'Brien gaining some local transfers from Foley if, as expected, she is first to be eliminated. But will it be enough to put him in the running for a seat?

Kerry South (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:John O'Donoghue (FF), Breeda Moynihan-Cronin (Lab), Jackie Healy-Rae (Ind)

Can Healy-Rae fight off the challenge to his seat? FG,with two candidates, is snapping at his heels, while FF's Tom Fleming, who came near to ousting the veteran last time, is also in with a chance. But if Healy-Rae manages to stay ahead of Fleming, his former FF colleague's transfers could elect him. The first preference votes of O'Donoghue and Fleming will indicate how realistic FF's hope for a gain is.

Kildare North (Increased to 4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Emmet Stagg (Lab), Bernard Durkan (FG), Catherine Murphy (Ind*). * Elected in byelection

A Fianna Fáil breakthrough is virtually certain here, given that it is the only constituency in the State where the party has no seat since it lost the 2005 by-election caused by Charlie McCreevy's move to Brussels as European Commissioner. But this time it is a four-seater and the most likely result is the existing three TDs and a Fianna Fáil TD.

Kildare South (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Seán Power (FF), Seán Ó Fearghall (FF), Jack Wall (Lab)

Once the base of former Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes, who lost his seat in 2002, the party is without a seat there now. Wall is considered safe, so a Fine Gael gain would have to be at Fianna Fáil's expense, with Power considered most vulnerable. Power's brother, JJ, is running for the Green Party in the constituency, and it will be interesting to see if there are any family-related transfers.

Laois-Offaly (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Brian Cowen (FF), John Moloney (FF), Seán Fleming (FF), Olwyn Enright (FG), Tom Parlon (PD)

Will Parlon be the casualty if former FG TD, Charles Flanagan, a surprise loser the last time, returns to the Dáil? Or could one of the three Fianna Fáil seats, probably Fleming's, be the vulnerable one? On the other hand, if the Government parties hold sway, could Flanagan simply replace Enright?

Limerick East (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Willie O'Dea (FF), Peter Power (FF), Michael Noonan (FG), Tim O'Malley (PD), Jan O'Sullivan (Lab)

The one certainty is that O'Dea will top the poll with a huge vote. After that, it will be a matter of whether Noonan's running mate, Kieran O'Donnell, can take a second seat for Fine Gael, probably at the expense of O'Malley, although Power's seat is not totally safe.

Limerick West (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:John Cregan (FF), Michael Collins (FF), Dan Neville (FG)

Can Fine Gael senator and former TD Michael Finucane win a seat, at the expense of Fianna Fáil, and join colleague Dan Neville in the Dáil, giving his party a gain in this once FF stronghold? Cregan is very strong, while Niall Collins, nephew of Michael Collins, who is retiring, will have the legendary Collins machine behind him. It might also boil down to a battle for the FG seat between Neville and Finucane.

Longford-Westmeath (4 seats) (revived constituency after redraw)

OUTGOING TDs:Peter Kelly (FF), Donie Cassidy (FF), Paul McGrath (FG), Willie Penrose (Lab), Mae Sexton (PD)

Sexton seems the inevitable casualty in this redrawn four-seater. Otherwise, the political representation is likely to remain the same, with Senator James Bannon favourite to take the FG seat, held by McGrath, who is retiring. Watch out for the internal FF battle between Cassidy and Senator Mary O'Rourke for the seat he took from her the last time.

Louth (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs: Dermot Ahern (FF), Séamus Kirk (FF), Fergus O'Dowd (FG), Arthur Morgan (SF)

Can Maireád McGuinness take a second seat for Fine Gael, at Kirk's expense, or could she simply unseat O'Dowd? The result will show whether the tension between O'Dowd and McGuinness managed to yield a better Fine Gael result, or simply muddied the pitch for the party. Don't rule out Mark Dearey of the Green Party, who could cause a surprise and take a seat.

Mayo (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:John Carty (FF), Enda Kenny (FG), Michael Ring (FG), Jerry Cowley (Ind), Beverley Flynn* (Ind). * Elected for FF in 2002

Can Enda Kenny, alternative taoiseach, secure a third seat for Fine Gael, and could it be at the expense of Cowley? Carty has two ambitious running mates, Frank Chambers and Dara Calleary, snapping at his heels, so a change in FF personnel cannot be ruled out if the party is left with just one seat. Will Ballina vote local and swing behind Calleary or FG's Michelle Mulhern?

Meath East (3 seats, new constituency)

OUTGOING TDs:Mary Wallace (FF), Shane McEntee (FG)

This new three-seater should see Wallace and McEntee retaining their seats, while Labour's Dominic Hannigan is favourite to take the third seat. However, watch for the performance of Independent Brian Fitzgerald, a former Labour TD, who is something of a dark horse given his strong local base.

Meath West (3 seats, new constituency)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel Dempsey (FF), Johnny Brady (FF), Damien English (FG)

Another new three-seater, which contains part of Westmeath, and is unlikely to throw up any surprises. There will be interest in the performance of Meath GAA star Graham Geraghty (FG), while Sinn Féin's Joe Reilly, a hot favourite if the old Meath five-seater had remained intact, will poll well and cannot be entirely ruled out.

Roscommon-South Leitrim (3 seats, redrawn)

OUTGOING TDs:Michael Finneran (FF), John Ellis (FF), Denis Naughten (FG).

Leitrim voters, who saw their county divided in the redrawing of the constituencies, are expected to vote local in this new three-seater. This should help Ellis who will be battling it out with Fine Gael's Senator Frank Feighan for the third seat, the first two having been taken by Finneran and Naughten. However, north Roscommon may decide that it wants local representation in Boyle-based Feighan which might be enough to give FG a gain.

Sligo-North Leitrim (3 seats, redrawn)

OUTGOING TDs:Jimmy Devins (FF), John Perry (FG), Marian Harkin (Ind)

With Harkin opting for Europe, the battle to watch here is between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the third seat. Devins and Perry are likely to take the first two seats, leaving Fine Gael's Michael Comiskey and Imelda Henry and Fianna Fáil's Senator Eamon Scanlon battling it out for the remaining seat. Scanlon's vote will indicate if his huge work rate and strong campaign have paid off.

Tipperary North (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Michael Smith (FF), Maire Hoctor (FF), Michael Lowry (Ind)

Is it the endgame for veteran TD Smith, a former minister in a number of departments, who was first elected to the Dáil in 1969? He is seen as the most vulnerable to the challenge from Fine Gael's Senator Noel Coonan and Labour's Senator Kathleen O'Meara, with Coonan the favourite. Watch out for a strong performance from Independent Jim Ryan, whose transfers could prove to be crucial.

Tipperary South (3 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Noel Davern (FF), Tom Hayes (FG), Séamus Healy (Ind)

There will be at least one change here, given Davern's retirement after a long career stretching back to 1969. Senator Martin Mansergh, former adviser to a number of FF taoisigh and a key player in the Northern peace process, is among the three FF candidates seeking to replace him. The first count should give an indication if Labour's Phil Prendergast is going to unseat Healy.

Waterford (4 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Martin Cullen (FF), Ollie Wilkinson (FF), John Deasy (FG), Brian O'Shea (Lab)

Party representation is unlikely to change, but on a good day for Sinn Féin, its candidate David Cullinane, might be in the reckoning for a seat. Meanwhile, Senator Brendan Kenneally will be attempting to win back his FF seat from Wilkinson. It will be interesting to see if national controversies will influence the vote of Minister for Transport Cullen.

Wexford (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:John Browne (FF), Tony Dempsey (FF), Paul Kehoe (FG), Liam Twomey (FG*), Brendan Howlin (Lab). * Elected as Independent

Could Sinn Féin's John O'Dwyer, who polled nearly 5,000 first preferences the last time, cause an upset? And how will PD candidate Colm O'Gorman do? There will be much interest, too, in Twomey's performance, given that he was elected the last time as an Independent, later joined Fine Gael and was appointed health spokesman.

Wicklow (5 seats)

OUTGOING TDs:Dick Roche (FF), Joe Jacob (FF), Billy Timmins (FG),  Liz McManus (Lab), Mildred Fox (Ind)

There will be changes, given that Jacob and Fox are retiring. Deirdre de Burca, of the Green Party, and Labour's Nicky Kelly, who narrowly lost out the last time, will be in contention for a seat. The second FF seat could be vulnerable, given local divisions, while Fine Gael could be in contention for a second seat if the party's star is on a high.