Military analysis: US forces are in a position to launch continuous attacks in the Iraqi capital, writes Tom Clonan
Troops and armour of the US 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanised) have penetrated to the heart of Baghdad. Televised images have shown US tanks traversing Baghdad's central parade ground, passing under Saddam's triumphal arch of crossed swords, considered synonymous with the Iraqi regime.
City-centre palaces, conspicuous symbols of Saddam's power, have been entered by US combat troops in flak jackets and helmets. The entire range of popular iconography associated with the Baath Party regime, including statues and posters of Saddam, are being systematically destroyed by the 25mm guns of Bradley armoured fighting vehicles and the cannons of Abrams tanks.
Advancing from the south-west, the US 3rd Division is reported to have linked up with elements of the US 1st Marine Expeditionary Force, located to the south and east of the city centre. The north-west of the capital is reportedly sealed off by US troops deployed along Highway 1. The main route from Baghdad Airport to downtown Baghdad is also reported to be under the control of US forces.
In effect, central Baghdad is surrounded by US troops. With reinforcements from the US 4th Infantry Division now in Iraq, Centcom is in a position to launch continuous probing attacks within the capital.
In much the same way that the British conducted operations in Basra, US forces will achieve decapitation of the Iraqi regime by applying an ever-constricting ligature around Baghdad.
This constriction will be achieved through the attrition of Saddam's forces by constant ground and air attack. US troops manoeuvring into key locations around the capital will direct constant attacks onto known and suspected Iraqi positions.
US firepower available in Baghdad includes a wide range of weapons systems organic to forward units such as mortars and missile systems. These systems are augmented with 24-hour on-call close air support and long-range artillery and multi-launch rocket systems located with units on the outskirts of the city.
With the ability to "lift and shift" such firepower at will, US forces are capable of directing a devastating barrage of free-fall bombs and dedicated munitions with pinpoint accuracy anywhere within the city. In this way, a relatively small number of US troops are capable of suppressing the activities of Iraqi defenders within a large urban area.
Using Basra as a blueprint, the US will continue to exercise this stranglehold on the city until what Centcom calls the tipping point has been reached. Once the momentum of Saddam's defence has subsided, US troops will move forward to seize and hold ground in the final battle for Baghdad.
Once the permanent presence of American troops has been established throughout the city centre, the US will declare its garrison defeated and the capital finally captured. In this way, the US will hope to circumvent the requirement for the street-by-street combat associated with conventional urban warfare.
This circumvention will have been achieved by Centcom's approach to the invasion of Iraq. In the initial phase of the campaign, Centcom targeted Iraqi air defence and command and control assets. With Iraq stripped of its missile and radar capability, the US and British asserted total dominance of Iraqi air space from an early stage.
This early dominance explains the relatively short duration of the air campaign in Operation Iraqi Freedom, compared to a campaign in excess of 40 days during Operation Desert Storm.
While US and British troops were engaged by concentrations of Iraqi troops at strategic choke points, at no point did the Iraqi military manoeuvre their forces forward in a co-ordinated or pro-active manner.
Deprived of command and control structures, the Iraqi military resorted to a series of static, fixed-point defences around pre-ordained defensive positions, which resulted in pitched battles at Umm Qasr, Nasariya, Najaf and Karbala. Outgunned, outmanoeuvred and deprived of the initiative associated with a flexible deployment posture, the Iraqis were simply bypassed or destroyed at these locations.
The war in Iraq is by no means over. There will be losses on all sides in Baghdad as final pockets of resistance are subdued. There will also be a difficult occupation phase in Iraq. Internecine violence between Shia, Sunni, Kurd and Marsh Arab will be a feature of an uneasy period post-Saddam.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. He is a fellow of the US-based Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society. He currently lectures in the School of Media, DIT