Opinion polls are predicting Vladimir Putin will be elected president in the first round
VLADIMIR PUTIN, Russia’s prime minister, will win the forthcoming Russian presidential election. He is, after all, candidate of both God and Mammon.
He has the support, with one notable exception, of big business. Gazprom, the world’s largest supplier of natural gas is with him all the way.
So too is the Orthodox Church in the person Patriarch Kirill of all Russia.
The leaders of Russia’s Islamic regions have also fallen in line.
Gazprom is more than an ordinary energy company. It has extensive media interests, including the virulently pro-Putin NTV, while the patriarch is no ordinary western-style church leader.
He is respected by those outside his flock and obeyed by those within.
His statement that Putin’s 12 years in power should be viewed as “a miracle of God” is a clear message to the faithful.
As for the Muslim regions the figures from Chechnya in the December parliamentary elections give a good indication of where they stand.
More than 99 per cent of Chechen voters opted for Putin’s United Russia party in that poll and they will turn out in similar numbers for Putin on March 4th.
Opinion polls in Russia are notoriously unreliable. Some polls suggest he will garner 48 per cent of the votes and will need a run-off against the second placed candidate to make it to the Kremlin.
Others claim he will get more than 60 per cent and be elected in the first round. The second scenario is the more likely.
Putin (59) starts out with huge advantages over his four opponents: Gennady Zyuganov of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Zhirinovsky from the self-styled Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, which is by no stretch of the imagination either liberal or democratic, Sergei Mironov of the small “A Just Russia” party which claims social democratic credentials and the notable exception from the business world Mikhail Prokhorov, the second richest man in Russia, who is running as an independent.
The prime minister dominates the traditional media with the exception of one small newspaper Novaya Gazeta, one radio station Ekho Moskvy, and one television station REN TV.
The opposition dominates the new media but it is an opposition entirely different and separate from the four candidates who have qualified to compete against the hot favourite.
YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, the social media site VKontakte and the Russian blogosphere are the domains of those who have taken their politics onto the streets rather than the ballot boxes, either out of choice or because they have been forced to take that route.
Putin has been busy in recent weeks putting forward his views in a manner quite the opposite to the soundbites employed by western politicians.
His policy statements published in national newspapers have tended to average more than 5,000 words each and have so far totalled in the region of 100 pages of a book.
He has concentrated of the concept of making Russia great again, on strengthening its armed forces and on stirring up anti-American feeling.
All polls indicate the communist candidate Zyuganov will finish second.
Zyuganov is typical of the middle-ranking members of the Soviet Communist Party who came to the fore in Russia as its more prominent members left the fold on the dissolution of the USSR.
A native of the Oryol region in what has become known as the “Red Belt” south of Moscow, Zyuganov (68) led his party to a reasonably successful parliamentary election in December when his party gained almost 20 per cent of the votes but the high-water mark of his popularity came in the 1996 presidential election when he forced Boris Yeltsin into a run-off.
Yeltsin suffered a major heart attack in the final days of the campaign but censorship ensured this was not reported in the Russian media and he won through.
Zyuganov’s calls for the “re-Stalinisation” of Russia and his serious lack of charisma ensure that he will not come near Putin in the polls but he is likely to benefit from a protest vote as the other three candidates are seen as being allied to Putin in differing degrees.
Zhirinovsky earned the title of “Mad Vlad” in some western media outlets because of his erratic behaviour and his outrageous statements .
He has, for instance, described the US Congress as “Israeli occupied territory” and when questioned about his parents who were Russian Orthodox and Jewish, he replied: “My mother was a Russian and my father was a lawyer.”
Zhirinovsky sweeps up the extreme right-wing vote, utters strong anti-government rhetoric but without exception supports the government when it comes to votes in the Duma.
Many voters are suspicious of A Just Russia’s Mironov, a 59-year-old engineer from St Petersburg , because of his previous associations with Putin.
When he stood for the presidency in 2004 his candidacy was not regarded as serious not least because of his statement: “We all want Vladimir Putin to be president.”
He managed 1 per cent of the vote that time but is expected to do a lot better on March 4th due to his recent conversion to social democracy.
Bringing up the rear is Russia’s second richest man, Prokhorov, who made his vast fortune from mining. He stands out in a crowd not because of charisma, which he lacks, but because he is just over 2 metres (6ft 8in) tall.
His height may have contributed to his decision not to buy an English soccer club but instead to purchase the New Jersey Nets basketball team where he can look his players in the eye.
Like Mironov, Prokhorov has made statements in the past praising Putin and his reputation is unlikely to lead to an endorsement from the patriarch.
Unmarried, Prokhorov (47) was asked who his first lady would be if he were elected. He replied that he had his first lady when he was 17.
He is unlikely to woo Russia’s female voters even though he is supported by the immensely popular raunchy pop star Alla Pugachyova.