BELARUS:In order to woo Alexander Lukashenko from ally Russia, the West may turn a blind eye to an election neither free nor fair
NINE YEARS after her husband vanished, Zinaida Gonchar fears the West may strike a murky bargain tomorrow with the man whom many blame for his disappearance.
Relatives of Belarus's disappeared, and beleaguered opposition parties, warn that the European Union and United States may temper criticism of a tightly controlled general election in a bid to woo President Alexander Lukashenko away from traditional ally Russia.
Keen to weaken Moscow's grip on its neighbours after the war in Georgia, Brussels and Washington have discussed easing sanctions on a man dubbed "Europe's last dictator" if the ballot is more free and fair than the others he has overseen during 14 years in power.
"Just under the surface this election is as bad as the rest," said Mrs Gonchar, who works for an opposition party. "If the West recognises this vote and compromises with Lukashenko, it will be making a very dangerous mistake."
Viktor Gonchar, a prominent critic of Mr Lukashenko, vanished along with businessman and ally Anatoly Krasovsky on the night of September 16th, 1999, after a visit to a sauna in the Belarusian capital Minsk. Four months earlier in the city, Yuri Zakharenko, an ex-interior minister and leading Lukashenko opponent, disappeared on his way home. In July 2000 the president's former personal cameraman, Dmitry Zavadsky, went missing near Minsk airport.
Belarus' state security service, still called the KGB, claims to have conducted a full investigation into the fate of the four men, but failed to discover what happened to them.
However, two former KGB officers who fled to the US say they were murdered by a special death squad created by officials close to Mr Lukashenko, who has always denied any involvement in their disappearance.
"Zakharenko and Gonchar had the charisma, ability and popularity to be a serious threat to Lukashenko, and as a businessman Krasovsky could help them do it," said Oleg Volchak, a former police investigator and lawyer who has studied the case.
"How can the West now talk about dropping sanctions and negotiating with Lukashenko, when no one knows what happened to his strongest challengers?"
Regularly lambasted by Washington and EU leaders for fixing elections, harassing critics and crushing independent media, Mr Lukashenko caught the eye of western diplomats last month by resisting Russian pressure to recognise the independence of rebel Georgian regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia and freeing three opponents from jail.
Coming after a rare spat between Belarus and Russia over Kremlin demands for higher energy payments, some European capitals now hope to shrink Moscow's sphere of influence by easing Minsk out of its grip. The US has already lifted sanctions on certain Belarusian firms.
"If Europe and America see the elections as a criterion [for better ties], then let me congratulate you. After the election, we will have the warmest possible relations," Mr Lukashenko said.
"This election is unprecedentedly free, run according to the rules of the West," he insisted, before sounding a characteristically brusque warning.
"If even this time the elections turn out to be 'undemocratic', we will halt all discussions with the West," he declared, adding that Belarus would instead strengthen links with western bugbears such as Venezuela and Iran.
In Minsk, evidence of an impending election is scarce, and in the regions it is all but non-existent.
Posters of candidates can only be put up at a few designated points around the capital, and they are restricted to a five-minute broadcast on television and radio and a small article in newspapers.
Opposition groups say their surveys suggest that about 90 per cent of Belarusians have no idea who represents them in parliament, and that a similar proportion have no intention of voting tomorrow.
"Parliament means nothing - everyone knows who makes the decisions in our country," said Vitaly, a heating engineer in Minsk. Mr Lukashenko's supporters hail Belarus's stability and economic growth - which is partly due to cheap Russian energy - but his true level of popularity is unknown.
As proof of democratic progress, he cites the 70 or so opposition candidates who are on the ballot, far more than in previous elections, and the presence of more than 450 observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
The OSCE has already criticised a paucity of media coverage for opponents of the regime, however, and parties critical of the president say their members are still being harassed, unfairly excluded from the ballot, prevented from holding effective public meetings and being denied access to the commissions that oversee the vote-count.
An EU diplomat said sanctions could be eased next month if the election went well, potentially allowing Belarus to benefit from the European neighbourhood policy, which offers funding and trade opportunities to non-member states.
"There is realism that these elections will not be the acme of democracy," the diplomat said.
"But the EU response can be calibrated to reflect the level of freeness and fairness - as in how many officials are taken off the banned visa list, what benefits from the European neighbourhood policy are released."
Such a scenario appals most opposition leaders and activists such as Aliaksandr Atroshchankau. He says police smashed their way into his office last autumn in a supposed search for a dead body. They took away his computer and jailed him for 10 days for allegedly swearing at an officer. After being released, he was asked to come to KGB headquarters to collect his computer, upon which he was arrested and jailed for another 15 days for "insulting a judge".
"The EU can't lift sanctions just as they start to deliver results," he said. "Rather than recognising rigged elections, the EU should push for talks between Lukashenko and opposition parties. If the West says this farcical vote is good enough, then Lukashenko will never change."