US: George W Bush is not the first US president to run into trouble in his second term, writes Dennis Staunton in Washington
George W Bush faced such stormy political weather in 2005 that it sometimes seemed as if his presidency was already in its last days. But with three years left in office, the president has more time ahead of him in the White House than John F Kennedy’s entire presidency.
As he prepares to deliver his sixth State of the Union address at the end of January, Bush is hoping not only to escape his current troubles but to secure a place in American history as a conservative president who defended his country in a time of war.
If he is to succeed, the president must regain the confidence of his conservative base and ensure that the Republicans retain their majorities in the House and Senate in November’s mid-term elections.
He must retain the support of the American people in the fight against terrorism and their trust that he is keeping the country safe from attack.
Above all, he must prevail in Iraq – or at least avoid the perception that the US military operation is plunging ever deeper into a morass with no prospect of victory or disengagement.
Bush is not the first American president to run into trouble in his second term. For Bill Clinton, it was the Monica Lewinsky scandal, for Ronald Reagan, the Iran-Contra affair and for Richard Nixon, the inquiry into Watergate.
But few presidents have seen electoral victory turn to ashes so quickly and none have plunged so low in public esteem at a time when their party enjoyed majorities in both houses of Congress.
Bush won re-election in 2004 after a first term that saw an economic recession, a succession of corporate scandals and bankruptcies, the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001, and wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He
declared that he had earned political capital and that he intended to spend it during his second term.
In fact, the first months of 2005 saw the administration adopt a more conciliatory approach, particularly in foreign policy.
Bush visited Europe, spending a night in Brussels where he affirmed Washington’s support for European integration and indicated that it was time for a thaw in relations with France and Germany, which opposed the invasion of Iraq.
At home, the economy was picking up and Republicans in Congress achieved some longstanding conservative legislative goals, notably in curbing class-action lawsuits and changing the bankruptcy laws.
Bush had to abandon his most important domestic initiative – reforming the state pension system – but before the summer recess, Congress approved the Central American Free Trade Agreement and passed major energy and transport bills.
The public’s loss of confidence in the administration began with the case of Terri Schiavo, a brain-dead Florida woman whose husband wanted to remove her feeding tube while her blood relations wanted to keep her alive.
The Republicans pushed through legislation to move the Schiavo case to the federal courts and Bush rushed back to Washington DC from his Texas ranch to sign the bill into law at midnight.
Most Americans disapproved of the Republican action, viewing it as unwarranted government interference in a private tragedy and a sign of the excessive influence of the religious right.
Anti-war protester Cindy Sheehan dominated the news agenda during August with her vigil outside the president’s ranch in protest against Bush’s refusal to meet her to discuss her son’s death in Iraq.
But it was Hurricane Katrina that changed everything for the administration, leaving many Americans with the impression that their government was incompetent, uncaring and riddled with cronyism.
Much of the American public may have forgotten Katrina but the public perception of Bush has not recovered from the storm. No longer the strong leader who united the country after September 11th, the president appeared feeble, hesitant and lacking authority.
The CIA leak inquiry, the ill-fated nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court and corruption scandals involving Republican leaders in Congress further eroded public confidence in the administration.
But after a few weeks in November, when the president’s approval rating fell below 40 per cent, he has regained some lost confidence with a series of speeches making the case for the war in Iraq.
Bush will take a major step towards winning back the confidence of conservatives in the next few weeks if Samuel Alito is confirmed as a supreme court justice.
With chief justice John Roberts, Alito would bolster the conservative camp in the court, bringing the Republican right closer to its ambition of using the court to limit abortion rights, curtail affirmative action programmes for minorities and block marriage rights for homosexuals.
Immigration reform offers another opportunity to persuade Republican voters that the administration and the Republican-dominated Congress are in tune with their concerns.
The White House also believes that the economy, which is growing at about 4 per cent a year, is a success story that remains untold – or inadequately appreciated.
Democrats have until now failed to benefit from the administration’s troubles and they remain divided on strategy as they start campaigning for the mid-term elections.
Above all, the September 11th effect – which has made national security a major preoccupation for many Americans – continues to benefit the president.
Most Americans want to trust their president and, as long as Bush can persuade them that he is keeping the country safe, they will be inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt.