Best of times for Republic lie ahead - ESRI researchers

THE Republic has entered an era of unprecedented opportunity, according to two senior researchers with the Economic and Social…

THE Republic has entered an era of unprecedented opportunity, according to two senior researchers with the Economic and Social Research Institute.

The number of people at work will go on rising, there will be no significant increase in the number of dependent old people and there will bed fewer children to be supported, they argue.

They conclude that the makeup of the population is at its most favourable for 200 years.

The researchers, Prof John FitzGerald and Dr Tony Fahey, have presented their views in a book, Welfare Implications of Demographic Trends, commissioned by the Combat Poverty Agency.

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They claim that scare stories about the rising burden of welfare in a falling population are unfounded and cite a number of factors in support of their optimism:

. The numbers of young and old people and people on welfare who have to be supported by workers will go on falling for at least 10 to 15 years - from 220 dependents per 100 workers in the mid1980s to 133 per 100 workers in 2,010.

. The number of people at work will continue to rise and the unemployment rate will be halved by the year 2,010.

. The savings in unemployment benefits will make up for any increase in the cost of pensions.

. Because women are having fewer children, more women are available to enter the labour force and to pay taxes to fund State services.

. The Irish tax system means that women moving into jobs to form dual earner couples will have all their in come taxed. For as long as this arrangement survives it will give a disproportionately large boost to tax revenues.

. Extra taxes paid by women will help fund State services for dependent old people.