POLLWATCH:IN THE 1948 presidential election, Gallup stopped polling a week out from the election and completely missed the surge that put Democrat Harry Truman into the White House at the expense of Thomas Dewey.
In the 2008 race, polls have been as common as confetti, although the wildly different figures on offer are making some in the polling industry nervous with just days to go in this campaign.
The trend in practically all of them has been clear: Barack Obama has come through strongly over the last month as the economic crisis has worsened, and the performance of his opponent John McCain has been more erratic.
However, the variation in some – but by means all – polls is extraordinary. In some surveys Obama has led by just two points.
In others, the gap is 15 points, which would be enough to ensure that the fight would be over next Tuesday even before some western states finish voting.
The key will be the turn-out of young voters, and of African-Americans. The McCain camps argues that pollsters are overestimating the numbers of both categories that will vote.
However, early voting in some states show a high percentage of each.
In the latest Gallup poll, which assumes that the turnout will follow the practice in past elections, Obama leads by just two point, 49 to 47.
However, using a model that allows for a higher number of first-time voters, Gallup says the gap between the candidates now extends to seven points.
Yesterday, a poll commissioned by MSNBC/Wall Street Journal and MySpace.com claims that Obama enjoys a two-to-one majority among 18- to 21-year-olds, and also among those who had previously given up on voting.
Not only do both groups favour Obama, but, according to the poll, the strength of their negative feelings towards McCain and towards his running-mate, Sarah Palin – much higher than the national average – should bring them out to vote.
