The war in Iraq is breeding deep resentment of the US that is likely to get worse before it gets better, federal intelligence analysts conclude in a report at odds with President George W. Bush's talk of a world growing safer.
The bleak report was declassified and released yesterday on Mr Bush's orders after weekend leaks caused an uproar over its findings that seemed so out of step with the Bush administration's reassurances.
Compiled from the judgments of the top US analysts, the document concludes that despite serious damage to the leadership of al-Qaeda, the threat from Islamic extremists has spread both in numbers and in geographic reach.
US President George W. Bush
Mr Bush and his top advisers have said the formerly classified assessment of global terrorism supported their arguments that the world is safer because of the war.
More than three pages of stark judgments that warn of the spread of terror contrasted with the administration's optimistic declarations.
"If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide," the document says. "The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups."
The intelligence assessment, completed in April, has stirred a heated election-season argument over the course of US national security in the years since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.
Virtually all assessments of the current situation were bad. The report's few positive notes were couched in conditional terms, depending on successful completion of difficult tasks ahead for the US and its allies.
In one example, analysts concluded that more responsive political systems in Muslim nations could erode support for Islamic militants.
Mr Bush ordered a declassified section of the secret report released after several days of criticism sparked by portions that were leaked to the news media during the weekend.
Asked about those yesterday, Mr Bush said critics who believe the Iraq war has worsened terrorism are naive and mistaken. "To suggest that if we weren't in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario, with fewer extremists joining the radical movement, requires us to ignore 20 years of experience," Mr Bush said.