The economic boom may at last be benefiting the long-term unemployed. According to an internal FAS report, unemployment rates among people out of work for more than three years are falling significantly faster than the national average.
In the year ending April 1997, the overall unemployment rate fell by 9.3 per cent, but the unemployment rate for people out of work for three years or more fell by 11.2 per cent.
These figures suggest that initiatives targeted at the long-term unemployed are working. These include giving the long-term unemployed priority for placement on Community Employment schemes, the £80-a-week Jobstart subsidy to employers who take them on, and the Department of Social Welfare's "Back to Work" allowance.
However, the downside is that rates among people unemployed for between three months and three years are not falling as fast as the national average. This suggests that initiatives to help the long-term unemployed may, to some extent, be at the expense of those who have been out of work for shorter periods.
The FAS paper on long-term unemployment, which is due to be published shortly, gives a breakdown of changes in the Live Register between April 1996 and April 1997. These show that unemployment fell most rapidly for two groups. One was those signing on for three years or more, which fell from 69,667 to 61,870 - a drop of 11.2 per cent. The other was those unemployed for less than three months - down 66,350 to 57,899 (12.7 per cent).
Falls were recorded in all other categories, but they were all below the national average of 9.3 per cent. In the group unemployed for between three and six months, the fall was 6.9 per cent. For those unemployed for between six and 12 months the fall was 7.8 per cent.
The two groups where the fall was lowest were those unemployed for between 12 and 24 months, down 6.2 per cent, and those unemployed for between 24 and 36 months, down 6.3 per cent.
This new report suggests that a closer look needs to be taken at the varying needs of the long-term unemployed and that they cannot be treated as a homogenous group. Overall, the FAS figures AS show that the initial pick-up in employment in the early 1990s had little impact on long-term unemployment, which even rose slightly in 1994.
However, since then, the numbers have fallen dramatically and are now well in line with the overall decline in unemployment. Two factors may be helping reduce the numbers of long-term unemployed. One is the rise in demand for low-paid, unskilled workers in the service sector, the other is reforms in the tax and social welfare systems, which make it more worthwhile for the long-term unemployed to take up jobs.