Florida is a key swing state, and Tampa Bay is a bellwether for the rest of Florida, reports John Glionna
Al Gore ended his presidential race in this gleaming Gulf Coast city, sipping strong Cuban coffee with his running mate, Joe Lieberman.
President Bush and Senator John Kerry have made repeat campaign stops here, observing the old axiom: As go Tampa Bay voters, so goes Florida.
A recent study showed that only three other metropolitan areas nationwide have been more barraged with presidential TV ads than Tampa Bay.
But despite all the attention, the region's voters are still very much divided over whom they want for president.
"The entire country is divided over its choice for president this year," said Harry Coe, a lawyer and registered Democrat. "And Tampa Bay represents that ambivalence."
Indeed, interviews with dozens of Tampa Bay voters suggest they are troubled over the Iraq war and the number of US soldiers killed there, but differ on which candidate has the best plan to end the conflict.
Some wonder if Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney are telling the truth about the war or the economy, while others question whether Kerry and his running mate, Senator John Edwards, possess the experience and decisiveness to lead the United States.
Coe, the Democrat, said he may vote for a Republican president for the first time in his life.
He's convinced that Kerry, if elected, would raise taxes on small business owners like himself and leave the nation vulnerable to another terrorist attack. And while he calls Bush "a flawed man and a flawed candidate", he says the President has at least established a track record in leading the nation.
Presidential candidates looking for a glimpse into the mind-set of the fourth-largest US state have long targeted the bellwether Tampa Bay community, which closely tracks Florida in demographic and political shifts from minority representation and voter turnout to average household income.
A recent poll of Tampa Bay voters, taken before their second debate on October 8th, gave Bush a narrow 5 per cent lead over Kerry, with a margin of error of 4 per cent. The results were part of a statewide Mason-Dixon Research poll of 625 likely voters in which Bush held a 4 per cent lead statewide. Two other new Florida polls found the race a toss-up.
Many call the 10-county area, which encompasses St Petersburg, Clearwater and Sarasota, a diverse crossroads to the new and old Florida, with city neighbourhoods, suburban developments and farms sitting within miles of each other.
The Tampa Bay area is also home to a quarter of Florida's registered voters. Since 1980 the presidential candidate who garnered the most votes here has won the battleground state that proved crucial in the 2004 election.
Not only have Tampa Bay voters chosen the winner in the last six presidential races and five of the last seven Florida gubernatorial contests, the region routinely comes within a few percentage points of how the Sunshine State votes as a whole.
Tampa Bay voters also traditionally turn out for presidential elections in greater percentages than the rest of Florida.